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#1
10-27-2005, 06:48 PM
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Raise flop or turn?
I have two fish in this game. One of them I've only played shorthanded with, and am not sure about his full game skills. It's my third hand at the table and 3 of the players there have played all 3 of them if that means anything. Game is loose and not overly aggressive.
PP 10/20 (9 players) Hero is button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Preflop: HiJack posts dead small and big (15$) UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, HiJack checks, CO calls, <font color="red">Hero calls</font>, SB completes, BB checks. With everyone in, and this particular lineup, I couldn't resist calling preflop. Although I'm only getting 8:1 on my money, I feel I stand to make more much of the time. OK call? Flop: 9 Players for 9.5 SB. SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero?</font>. If I raise now I feel there is about a 90% chance they will all check to me on the turn. If I'm beat I'll be 3-bet most of the time. Should I wait for a turn blank to charge flush draws the most and tie people to their hand? Or is the pot too big already to [censored] around in? 
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#3
10-27-2005, 10:48 PM
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Re: Raise flop or turn?
Re: Preflop call.
I don't think it's as bad as you all make it out to be. Keep in mind that the table is extremely loose and around neutral agressiveness. The majority of the table goes too far with too little. Now assume that if I flop either: a) quads b) full house c) trips d) two pair (using both my holecards) e) King high flush draw (excluding the 8 high draw); I can play them profitably post flop. There is a 4% chance that I will get any of these hands. Now if I can also manage to be good with just a pair of Kings one time out of five that I flop a pair of KINGS (not 8s). That is another 3% approximately. I don't really know if 1/5 if reasonable but it sounds like a close enough assumption. The total chance of the any of the above happening is around 7% or about 13.3:1 odds against. My call was getting 8:1 immediate pot odds with the best position possible for the remaining rounds. All this means that I would have to be able to make at least 6 small bets post flop (3 big bets) to turn this play into a profit. Against this field, I feel there is a decent chance that I could make triple to quadruple that post flop (maybe 15-25 small bets), depending on exactly what I flopped. It seems to me that the implied has a massive overlay that I can't turn down, hence my preflop call. But anyways, assume I posted on the button and got in for free (I realize you can't actually post on the button). How would you play this hand upon seeing the flop? Any discussion chance for that?
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#7
10-28-2005, 01:41 AM
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Re: Raise flop or turn?
Brom. You do realize that your arguments could apply to any two cards for the most part.
Hint: If your justification for playing a hand begins with "Now assume I flop quads . . ." you really shouldn't be playing the hand. There is a 4% chance of you getting any of your miracle flops. That's 24:1, and almost all of it is the chance you'll flop Kings & 8s, a very vulnerable holding. You're getting something like 8:1 if the blinds come along.
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#8
10-28-2005, 02:49 AM
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Re: Raise flop or turn?
[ QUOTE ]
Brom. You do realize that your arguments could apply to any two cards for the most part. [/ QUOTE ] Ya, I thought about that after (the any two cards part). While it is almost mathematically correct, I later figured that I should be especially avoiding potentially dominated holdings such as Kx. I like what one other poster mentioned about going in with hands more like 98o, Qxs, etc. These ones have a few more ways to win and a lesser degree of negative implied odds.
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#9
10-28-2005, 08:01 AM
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Re: Raise flop or turn?
[ QUOTE ]
Brom. You do realize that your arguments could apply to any two cards for the most part. Hint: If your justification for playing a hand begins with "Now assume I flop quads . . ." you really shouldn't be playing the hand. There is a 4% chance of you getting any of your miracle flops. That's 24:1, and almost all of it is the chance you'll flop Kings & 8s, a very vulnerable holding. You're getting something like 8:1 if the blinds come along. [/ QUOTE ]
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