$5 ultra turbo bubble decision

[SumZero]

Hand #9672724-49 at SnG-5108b (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 16/Nov/05 05:46:37

zackflavored is at seat 1 with 750.
ImEasyTwo is at seat 4 with 4855.
SumZero is at seat 5 with 6775.
ballprkrat is at seat 6 with 2320.
KunalShah1984 is at seat 8 with 300.
The button is at seat 1.

ImEasyTwo posts the small blind of 400.
SumZero posts the big blind of 800.

SumZero: 7d Qd

Pre-flop:

ballprkrat goes all-in for 2320. 3 folds.
Hero?

Edited to add: read on pusher is that he seems reasonable, and his move has been to push as his only move for a while, he was a short stack and has doubled up twice in the last orbit.

[splashpot]

First of all, this isn't bubble. Second, why is this a question? What would compell you to call in this situation? I don't see a single reason to even consider calling.

[Unabridged]

Hero should call ... me up next time he's playing

[SumZero]

Well the pot is offering better than 2:1 on the money.

And while 5 people may not quite be bubble, 2 of them have less than 1 BB so bubble considerations come into play.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, this isn't bubble. Second, why is this a question? What would compell you to call in this situation? I don't see a single reason to even consider calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's basically the bubble as two stacks have less than the BB. Also, calling isn't as ridiculous as you make it sound. He has great pot odds and is at no risk of busting out.

I fold because the button should have a good hand here to risk busting out, and because you are the chip leader on what could be a very profitable bubble. No need to ruin that.

If the small stacks weren't there, and you were ITM, I'd call. (Edit: This is assuming decent opponents. If they don't know how often they should be pushing here, then you can fold.)

[Unabridged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First of all, this isn't bubble. Second, why is this a question? What would compell you to call in this situation? I don't see a single reason to even consider calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's basically the bubble as two stacks have less than the BB. Also, calling isn't as ridiculous as you make it sound. He has great pot odds and is at no risk of busting out.

I fold because the button should have a good hand here to risk busting out, and because you are the chip leader on what could be a very profitable bubble. No need to ruin that.

If the small stacks weren't there, and you were ITM, I'd call. (Edit: This is assuming decent opponents. If they don't know how often they should be pushing here, then you can fold.)

[/ QUOTE ]

with Q7s you are probably going to end up a 2:1 dog
so you are taking a 66% chance of turning an easy coast to the final two into the bottom of 5000 vs 5000 vs 4000. that is -$ev

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
It's basically the bubble as two stacks have less than the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
Basically the bubble is not the same as bubble. A couple of double ups and those stacks become pretty dangerous.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, calling isn't as ridiculous as you make it sound. He has great pot odds and is at no risk of busting out.

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling one third of your stack with a hand that is at best 40-60 is ridicilous in my opinion. Especially when it leaves you with only 5BB when you lose and the blinds likely to go up again soon. Don't dis-count those short stacks. They can hurt you big time if you make some stupid moves.

[tigerite]

This is a stupidly easy fold

[SumZero]

Analysis and ICM before results:

zackflavored is at seat 1 with 750.
ImEasyTwo is at seat 4 with 4855.
SumZero is at seat 5 with 6775.
ballprkrat is at seat 6 with 2320.
KunalShah1984 is at seat 8 with 300.

So if I fold then we have:

750, 4455, 5975, 3520, 300. ICM says this is worth $16.90.

So if I call then we have the following situations:

Win: 750, 4455, 9495, 300. ICM says this is worth $21.03.
Lose: 750, 4455, 4455, 5040, 300. ICM says this is worth $14.78.
Tie: 750, 4455, 6975, 2420, 300. ICM says this is worth $18.15.

What is ballprkrats pushing range? Given the amount of people who fold their bigger stacks (80% of the poll), the size of the blinds, and the amount he's been raising, I could see a range of any pair, any ace, any two broadways (This is about 1/4 hands, so top 25%) quite easily.

Against that range poker stove says:

Win: 37.25%
Lose: 61.42%
Tie: 1.33%

That works out to an EV of .3725 * 21.03 + .6142 * 14.78 + .0133 * 18.55 which is $17.16. Which means we should definitely call.

If we tighten his range to (55+, A9+), top 10% of hands, [and given the number of times he's been pushing, and the number of people who are going to fold mediocre hands like q7s here, I think this is way too tight of a range] we get:

Win: 33.58%
Lose: 65.68%
Tie: 0.64%

That works out to an EV of .3358 * 21.03 + .6569 * 14.78 + .0064 * 18.55 which is $16.89.

So even with way too tight of a range for pusher, the call is essentially the same as the fold.

Results:

The actual results for the hand were hero chickened out and folded. ballprkrat showed his hand (the only time in his pushes up to this and after this that he did this) and he had AhKc. If I knew this and called I would have had:

Win: 36.78%
Lose: 62.82%
Tie: 0.4%

which works out to an EV of .3678 * 21.03 + .6282 * 14.78 + .004 * 18.55 for $17.09. So I cost myself $0.19, or about 3.5% ROI, by my fold given the exact cards he had, and even more given what I think his range was.

Fortunately I ended up finishing 1st in this tourney.

[tigerite]

Your sums are a bit off - I get him having to push with top 20% to make this a call. Yes you "only" need to win 36.4% of the time, but you can't put him on specific cards.

PS, I put it as you in the SB first time, so my sums were off. At 20% it's not quite so bad I suppose, but still that's fairly loose. If he's pushing AK here he's also pushing JJ etc so you were correct to fold considering his range.