99 vs 65/11/2

POKhER · #1 10-21-2005, 09:07 AM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP2 caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bets, CO folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (10.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero..

Whole action - How do you play it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]?

car ramrod · #2 10-21-2005, 09:09 AM

what hands do you think he is capping pf with?

Koss · #3 10-21-2005, 09:15 AM

He's loose but not crazy. I'd fold the river. You were either behind the whole way or he just caught up.

For the record, I play the hand the exact same planning to take the free showdown. I don't think there's much value in calling/betting the river.

numeri · #4 10-21-2005, 09:22 AM

I fold the flop. The only hand I can think of that might be played this way that you're actually ahead of would be something like AQs. I usually give a range of AA-QQ and AKs to a preflop cap. You're ahead of exactly none of those. Fold the flop.

crownjules · #5 10-21-2005, 09:27 AM

I guess you have to figure what villain is capping with PF. He's a bit loose with his PFR, but will he cap with any hand or just premium ones? If it's the former, then the raise on the flop is good IMO and then I'd just call the river. If he only caps with AA-QQ/AK, then you're well behind and should fold the flop with no draws.

#6 10-21-2005, 09:31 AM

Fold the river. You beat only a bluff. I usually play it the same, but in some case I just calldown and possibly find a fold on the turn; you're behind any pocket pair that's capping PF (and the villain's taking it to showdown in any case), behind any hand combination with a K (though less likely with two on the board), and on the turn, you're now also behind any hand combination with a J and AQ now has 13 outs to beat you.

Redd · #7 10-21-2005, 10:07 AM

Fold the flop. You have 2 outs here waaaay to often to justify showing down IMO.

bwana devil · #8 10-21-2005, 10:18 AM

as someone else asked what are reasonable hands he capping preflop? w/out any reads, a reasonable person would cap AA-TT, AKs, AKo, and maybe AQs.

after the flop youre behind seven of those hands. youre ahead of AQs and that's even a questionble hand he played.

fold on the flop.

crownjules · #9 10-21-2005, 10:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
as someone else asked what are reasonable hands he capping preflop? w/out any reads, a reasonable person would cap AA-TT, AKs, AKo, and maybe AQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know usual capping standards. That wasn't my question. Villain is hardly an unknown, at least I assume OP isn't posting those stats if they're only for some 20 hands or so.

Consider villain's numbers. 65/11/2. He plays 65% of hands and maintains an AF of 2. That's a LOT of betting/raising with no doubt losing hands. If the PFR number doesn't distinguish between raises/caps, then it's conceivable that villain could be capping with hands you wouldn't normally suspect given that he's unusually aggressive postflop.

Does the PFR % factor in capping amount, or is it strictly a measure of how often the person in question will raise? To clarify, if I raise and then cap, does it only count the initial raise or will both raise and cap increase my PFR %? My thinking is no, but I have never determined this myself.

Watain · #10 10-21-2005, 11:25 AM

Fold.

If we assume AA-JJ, AK and AQs as the starting hand then we are ahead the following %-age of the time:

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQs = 4

4/31 = 13%.

13% would in itself justify to continue. But since this is just the flop, we would most often pay some big bets to get to showdown. And even if he have AQ he still have 6 outs twice.

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Lets try the same, but this time we expand his card range to include AQo.

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQo = 16

16/43 = 37% !!

This would be a calldown i would think. Lets say you have 30% equity (due to his 6 outs). And we assume he bets all way and you call him down.

The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. You expect to win 30% of the pot = 3.5. And you had to pay 2,5.

EV: 3,5-2,5 = 1.

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Based on these calculations it seems like a calldown is in place if you suspect him to have AQx in his likely pf capping range.

Did I screw this up? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]