Would it be a bad thing if I just started folding AK UI to any bet?

[Watain]

Besides the factors that already have been mentioned I would also take into account the chance that someone might take a stab at the pot with no hand at all.

I use reads and pokertracker statistic to evaluate the likehood of this action.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assume the worst-case scenario - you totally miss the flop, and only have 6 outs for TPTK (3 Aces, 3 Kings) - no flush draws, no straight draws possible. With 6 outs, you'll hit your card by the river a little less than 1 in 3 times. So there needs to be 4 SB in the pot to even consider spending one more bet

[/ QUOTE ]
just wanted to point out that no one should take this advice. no offense.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense taken, but could I trouble you to elaborate just a wee bit there? I'm learning this game just like everyone else, and if my thinking is off somewhere, I'd like to know where.

Yes, I do realize that the 6 outs are not full outs - something I addressed in the next paragraph. In fact, this post prompted me to re-read the overcard section in SSH during lunch, and I agree that I was giving way too much value to those overcards - Sklansky only gives overcards ~1.5 outs each, about half of my number.

[aces_dad]

One thing your post implies that isn't a given is that you don't have the best hand and that you need to go to showdown to win. These two things are often not the case.

[ QUOTE ]
One thing your post implies that isn't a given is that you don't have the best hand and that you need to go to showdown to win. These two things are often not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. Ok, so maybe "worst-case scenario" wasn't exactly the best phrase to use. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand - if the flop comes 632 and I have AK, if you are holding T9 or A7 you are drawing pretty thin even though I didn't pair up making it a value bet with the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well with T9 (or any other undercards), it's not too thin. Since the cards are live, it's like a 4:1 to the river. Technically, they might be correct in calling a flop bet if the pot is big enough, assuming their cards are still live.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Well with T9 (or any other undercards), it's not too thin. Since the cards are live, it's like a 4:1 to the river. Technically, they might be correct in calling a flop bet if the pot is big enough, assuming their cards are still live.

[/ QUOTE ]

But they are only going to improve on the turn around 12% of the time meaning they really need 7:1 odds. They can't assume we'll just give them a free look at the river if they call a flop bet (and we usually wouldn't).

When you consider that they need to discount their outs because:

a.) We might have an overpair or TT/99 in which case we have them drawing extremely thin.
b.) We might have them dominated - they don't know that all 6 outs are good - they are drawing to 3 outs against AT/A9/KT/K9/QT/Q9/JT/J9.
c.) Both of us might improve giving us a better hand

Then they usually must fold to our flop bet with no read even if they think we just have ace high.