mistake?

[Redd]

I agree with Mr. W. about the flop raise. Not only is a 7-high flush worthless, but our straight is coming in like 1 time in 30ish. Too many players with too many reasons to call to justify a raise.

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i'm probably drawing to maybe 4 outs but more likely just the 2.

plus, i'm not convinced i won't have to put in 2 small bets by the end of this street.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any 7 on the turn is likely to make the best hands, and that is the only good thing about this situation. But you just don't have good enough odds to make this call. Pot must be bigger and you must be closing the action or fairly certain that you are only going to put one bet in to even make this close. It's fun when you spike your 7 and take down a huge pot, but making these types of calls can be a huge leak.

[Watain]

All in favor if folding here, please tell me where my calculations are wrong!! (Page 1.)

[Aaron W.]

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I would give you 3 outs on the flop. 2 for the two 7´s + 1 for str8+flsh.

So you need 14:1 to call.

You need to contract 2 big bets to make this breakeven, which is very likely.

Lets take the worst case scenario. The flop is capped and 3 players sees the turn (including you). That would give you 16:4 = 4:1. This means that you would have to contract 5 big bets on the turn and river to make it breakeven.

Even the worst case scenario seems like it won´t cost you to much. So i would call it.

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The "what's wrong with my math" is simple.

Given 3 outs you need about 14:1 is correct.

Hero is currently getting 9:1 to call. Assuming he is peeling here, he needs to win 5 SB when he hits his set. That's not so bad, except for the real fear that it gets raised behind him.

Suppose Hero knows it's going to get raised. Assuming that you get a couple other players to the turn, his odds are now something like 14:2 = 7:1. What must he do in implied odds to get up to 14:1? You can't look at 7:1 and work your way up from there, because that number has been rescaled. He is investing 2, so needs to win 28 total. Going from 14:2 to 28:2 is another 14 SB.

In the capped case, you're looking at something like 20:4, which needs to get up to 42:4 to break even, which is a whopping 22 extra SB AFTER the turn card. Good luck.

[Watain]

Of course. Did´nt think of the scaling.

Thx!

[pryor15]

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i'm probably drawing to maybe 4 outs but more likely just the 2.

plus, i'm not convinced i won't have to put in 2 small bets by the end of this street.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any 7 on the turn is likely to make the best hands, and that is the only good thing about this situation. But you just don't have good enough odds to make this call. Pot must be bigger and you must be closing the action or fairly certain that you are only going to put one bet in to even make this close. It's fun when you spike your 7 and take down a huge pot, but making these types of calls can be a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

so let's say i'm closer to closing the action than sitting right next to the guy who bet the flop and don't have to wonder about what the other 6 people in the hand are doing. do i fold, call, or raise? i suspect i'm missing some raising oportunities along these lines. my initial thought would be to call, but i could see where that could be incorrect.

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Wow, to me this is the easiest fold in the world.

1) You're up against 8 players, so the odds of your pair of sevens being the best right now isn't that great.
2) Even if they are best right now, lots of overcards can come to hurt you.
3) Your BDFD is to the seventh nut flush.
4) Your BDSD is to a one card straight that is further hurt by the flush draw on the board.
5) You don't have the pot odds to stay in and try to spike a 7.

So I think it was a good fold, unless you want to be results oriented about it. In that case, OMG YOU FOLDED QUADS WHAT A BAD FOLD!

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto

I think a raise is only good if 1) You have a decent chance of having the best hand. 2) You have a good chance of folding out a lot of other hands that could outdraw you. In your original hand, a raise might be ok if MP1 is a LAG and might bet without a K, and you might get everyone else to fold their overcards. Probably too many people in the pot to hope for that. I think that if there were callers betweeen you and the original bettor, a raise becomes even worse, b/c someone likely has a king, and even if they don't someone is more likely to out draw you.

[GTSamIAm]

No reason to call. You'd need to make up a lot of bets for appropriate odds, which you can't. The pot's just too small.