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#11
12-01-2005, 02:28 AM
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Re: The Double Min Raise
[ QUOTE ]
Flop: 8, 10, Q rainbow ($130 in the middle) SB checks, I bet $125, SB min raises to $250. Never having played the guy before, the preflop min raise followed by the flop check/min raise confuses me. I decide his most likely holding is AK or AJ but I don't have alot of conviction in that. Is pushing here with bottom set the optimal play given how the action went down? [/ QUOTE ] If you believe he has AK or AJ, then I don't believe a push is in order. You have him on a four-outer, and most of the other possibilities are as bad or worse (AQ needs runner-runner and KK needs a two-outer). Why set a price that encourages him to muck easily? If I really thought he had AK or AJ, I'd raise $300 back to encourage a bad call. Then, I'd push to a blank on the turn. If a K or J comes and he bets, I'm calling -- the ten-out redraw comes close to giving you sufficient odds to see the river; if it's a mistake at all, it isn't a huge one. If he checks a K or a J, I need a read to make a good decision, but the default is to bet. 
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#12
12-01-2005, 02:33 AM
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Re: The Double Min Raise
how about a minraise!
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#13
12-01-2005, 02:39 AM
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Re: The Double Min Raise
[ QUOTE ]
I would say the chances of him having AK or AJ are next to zero. Chances are MUCH better that he has AA, KK, QQ or TT. Ill say 40% AA 30% KK 20% QQ 5% TT 5% anything else. [/ QUOTE ] With no A on board, I might refine this slightly and say AA 35% and KK 35%; I think they play almost indistinguishably in this setting. I'd probably put a few percent on AK and, oddly, AQ. I've seen the minraise on TPTK often enough to give it some credence here. And an AQ raising an MP raiser happens from time to time, although not so often that the hand is a real contender here. I don't know how the OP reads this for AJ; I sure wouldn't.
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#14
12-01-2005, 03:42 PM
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Re: The Double Min Raise - Results
"I'd raise $300 back to encourage a bad call."
Pretty close. I actually re-raised him $250. And he made the bad call. A jack fell on the turn. He pushed. I felt like puking. At that point, I knew I was beat but I'd already committed half my stack so I made an equally bad call. He showed me AK. Pushing to his flop min-reaise probably would have forced him to fold and won me the pot -- that's why I was wondering if anybody else pushes in that situation. Thanks for everyones input.
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#15
12-01-2005, 06:46 PM
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Re: The Double Min Raise - Results
the key to poker = winning the most pots, so you have to push... make him fold his gut shot instead of bluffing into you on the turn!
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