how to know you are "beating" a limit

[cfjr2]

Lately I have been having 'good' sessions. I may be down 5-10bb or up 5-10 or 20 (sometimes more). I would say avg session in the 4-8 hour range. (I play .50 / 1 limit)

The hands, even when I lose, feel right - I think about the play while folding and waiting for another playable hand. I still see mistakes - should've bet on the river with a non-scary board, shoulda raised in that situation as it might have folded a bad hand that sucked out, etc.

last night I lost 40bb and no matter what I did it just did not get better. I played what I think was a good session but kept getting beat by Axo from this one guy and other incredible hands - even when they were raised into for 1 more or even 2 cold.

I ask because, lately, I get a session like this and drop down to ~100 - 150bb bankroll (in the account - I invest a bit each month to get reload bonuses, etc so i could have 300+ if needed so that isn't an issue). I then work back up to around 175 - 200bb and then get another session like this. net effect is to leave me treading water.

So is it just a matter of time before I can string enough winning sessions together? Do the folks that have beat this limit (and others) have any guidelines like - once I have this limit beat I only took 15bb downswings max?

This seems logical to me since, except in very bad circumstances, it seems that the good players that have moved on, seem to have significantly lower down variance than when playing at their 'level'. If this is the case then I would know when I have it "right" and then it is just a matter of time to accumulate the bankroll, or is this just wrong and the only indication that you've mastered a level is when you accumulate enough to move up?

I know it is possible to have a bad run - but how do I tell the difference? How do I know if I need to make adjustments vs. just a bad session?

regards,
Charles

[mwilli31]

I've seen numbers like winning 300BB in 10k hands is considered beating a limit. You're going to have your downswings no matter if you're crushing a limit or not, but I think the above number seems to be a fair guideline.

[MrWookie47]

Check out my paragraph on win rate.

[glean]

thats a great post, thanks for linking it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
Check out my paragraph on win rate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post, wookie.

[mmmmmbrother]

i recently came out of an 100bb downswing that was spikey as hell, which is a real blow to your confidence. it sounds like you might just be in a big downswing, although if it keeps reoccuring everytime you deposit, or work your way up a bit, then maybe its caused by you getting to comfortable and not watching youself.
poker varience is pretty [censored] hilrious though

[flopwell]

where can I get the rest of that avatar???

[aces_dad]

Wookie's post and others are very good.

By beating, I used the rule of thumb 300BB's won over 10k hands before moving from .50/1 to 1/2 and am working on 1/2 now.

When I have losing sessions (which happens to everybody), I like to replay the hands which I lost the most money on. I replay it slowly and see if I was tilting or didn't play the hand correctly. If it looks to me like I played correctly and got sucked out on, then there's nothing you can do and that allows me to put it behind me.

[cfjr2]

thanks all sounds good. It seems I have it right 80% or so, just need to climb out of the bad streak (sat for 1 hour last night and at about 40 hands an hour I played 3 one of the BB hands wasn't even worth playing - the cards were that bad)

PS - when I deposit I account for that by counting BB won / lost not the total $ in the account. So my account goes up (and has all my $ in it mostly lost the bonus $ at this point) in absolute terms (due to the added $) but my total win rate lately hovers at about +-0

thanks for the info especially Mr Wookie [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]