|
|
#31
11-04-2005, 10:54 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
I didn't advocate pushing. If you disagree with my logic, present an argument as to why, and please argue against what I'm actually suggesting. When you wrote "push", I assume this means an all-in bet, which is NOT what I'm suggesting.
Here's what I'm assuming: 1)Villain could have anything 2)Villain is pissed, so he's looking for an excuse to mix it up 3)Villian is much more likely to have one heart than two. I had to look around to see what your suggested line was. You say to check behind, but I don't know for what purpose. If a heart comes, and villain bets, do you plan to fold? I'm assuming this is what you have in mind. If not, tell me what your plan is, and we'll compare your plan with mine. If a non-heart comes on the turn, and Villain bets, what's the plan? It's hard to compare your plan with mine, since you don't say what your plan is, other than checking the flop. My plan is to bet around 150 to protect my hand on flop, and hope the pissed off villain comes over the top with a hand against which I'm the favorite. I think, given the circumstances, this is quite likely to happen. If he folds, that's fine too. If your plan is to check and fold if a heart comes on the turn, then your line is better than mine if a heart comes on the turn and Villain actually had a heart. It's also better than mine if Villain has two hearts and flopped a flush. If Villain doesn't have a heart, or if he has one heart and a heart doesn't come on the turn, then my line is better. 
|
|
#32
11-04-2005, 10:58 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
You need to take more things in consideration when the flop comes than, "Oh no, that looks scary!". It's true that there are some made hands that could have you crushed, but the chances of Villain having a drawing hand against which you are a favorite are much greater than his having a hand that has you beat. A good flop is a flop where you get action when you are ahead. That's likely to be the case here.
|
|
#33
11-04-2005, 11:25 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
My plan is to bet around 150 to protect my hand on flop, and hope the pissed off villain comes over the top with a hand against which I'm the favorite. I think, given the circumstances, this is quite likely to happen. If he folds, that's fine too. [/ QUOTE ] Man you sure don't listen well. Result http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1321850 pokenum -h kc ks - 2h 8c -- jh th 8h Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jh Th 8h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Kc 488 49.29 457 46.16 45 4.55 0.516 8c 2h 457 46.16 488 49.29 45 4.55 0.484 as you can see if he has ANY pair+flush draw it's a coinflip Result http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1321851 pokenum -h kc ks - ah 8c -- jh th 8h Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jh Th 8h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Kc 476 48.08 503 50.81 11 1.11 0.486 8c Ah 503 50.81 476 48.08 11 1.11 0.514 If he holds the Ace of hearts you are a slight dog but still basically a coinflip Result http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1321854 pokenum -h kc ks - ah 9c -- jh th 8h Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jh Th 8h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Kc 378 38.18 604 61.01 8 0.81 0.386 9c Ah 604 61.01 378 38.18 8 0.81 0.614 If he holds the ace of hearts and some form of a straigtening card you are a significant dog Now apply these to a blank turn Result http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1321856 pokenum -h kc ks - 2h 8c -- jh th 8h 7d Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 7d Jh Th 8h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Kc 27 61.36 14 31.82 3 6.82 0.648 8c 2h 14 31.82 27 61.36 3 6.82 0.352 NOW YOU ARE A FAVORITE You aren't a favorite on the flop against ANYTHING BUT A BLUFF....do you get what people are telling you? JEEEEEEEEEEEEZUS you don't listen well. Yes you are AHEAD of 2h 8c on the flop....but that doesn't mean you are the favorite with 2 cards to come...basically if you push that flop you aren't giving your opponent a chance to make a mistake.....he's going to call you with probably winners, and he's going to fold garbage that he might bluff with or call turn bets that is now an underdog to your hand...do you see how that works. Remember the fundamental theory of poker "you win money when your opponent plays differently than they would if they know what you hold" If you let your opponent come over the top of you on a semi-bluff, he's playing the hand better than you...he figures he has some equity on a scary board, and a chance to win on his raise, plus he can still improve to win...do you see where everyone is going with this?
|
|
#34
11-04-2005, 02:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
There's a lot of other hands he could have. You've only consider a very small sample of the hands Villain could have which would get action.
He could have a pocket pair, say 9's (no 9h), which even gives him a straight draw. Hero is a 63-36 favorite. Or a smaller pocket pair, like 5's. 90-10 favorite (no 5h; 58-42 favorite with 5h). He could have a heart with no pair or straight draw. The poster said the guy played a lot of trash, so let's give him a trashy hand with a heart, say Qh 5s. Hero is a 54 46 favorite here. If it's a Kh 5s, that's a 62 38 favorite. He could have a pair with no hearts or straight draw, say As Js. That's a 78-22 favorite. He could have a hand with no heart that has a straight draw and a pair, like 8s 9s. Hero is a 56 44 favorite. He could have a straight draw with no pair, say As 9s. 60-40 favorite. He could have a hand which completely missed the flop, we'll give a good one, like As Kd. 70-30 favorite. In all these cases hero benfits by betting by protecting his hand, while also giving a pissed off aggressive player an opportunity to go over the top with a hand where Hero is the favorite. Say you check. What's the plan if a heart comes on the turn, and Villain bets? Same quesiton if a non-heart comes?
|
|
#35
11-04-2005, 04:14 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
There's a lot of other hands he could have. You've only consider a very small sample of the hands Villain could have which would get action. He could have a pocket pair, say 9's (no 9h), which even gives him a straight draw. Hero is a 63-36 favorite. Or a smaller pocket pair, like 5's. 90-10 favorite (no 5h; 58-42 favorite with 5h). He could have a heart with no pair or straight draw. The poster said the guy played a lot of trash, so let's give him a trashy hand with a heart, say Qh 5s. Hero is a 54 46 favorite here. If it's a Kh 5s, that's a 62 38 favorite. He could have a pair with no hearts or straight draw, say As Js. That's a 78-22 favorite. He could have a hand with no heart that has a straight draw and a pair, like 8s 9s. Hero is a 56 44 favorite. He could have a straight draw with no pair, say As 9s. 60-40 favorite. He could have a hand which completely missed the flop, we'll give a good one, like As Kd. 70-30 favorite. In all these cases hero benfits by betting by protecting his hand, while also giving a pissed off aggressive player an opportunity to go over the top with a hand where Hero is the favorite. Say you check. What's the plan if a heart comes on the turn, and Villain bets? Same quesiton if a non-heart comes? [/ QUOTE ] None of the hands you mentioned are going to call a push or likely even bluff at this pot...that's everyones point...if you push against them you are letting them make the right decision...folding...that's the whole point everyone is making...yeah the guy might bluff with total crap...he might not too....if he was going to bluff push over the top of your continuation bet, he's probably going to bluff push the turn too.....why not wait till things look a little better for our hand?
|
|
#36
11-04-2005, 04:30 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
None of the hands you mentioned are going to call a push or likely even bluff at this pot...that's everyones point...if you push against them you are letting them make the right decision...folding...that's the whole point everyone is making...yeah the guy might bluff with total crap...he might not too....if he was going to bluff push over the top of your continuation bet, he's probably going to bluff push the turn too.....why not wait till things look a little better for our hand? [/ QUOTE ] The reason not to wait for the turn is that there are a lot of cards that can possibly beat you. What's your plan if one of these cards comes up? A heart falling is the most obvious scare card, but there's also an Ace, and straight cards that can come up as well. Why let Villain draw at these for free? I disagree that Villain is unlikely to come over the top with the hands I mentioned. He was described as aggresive and pissed off. That's just the mind set that someone who is likely to come over the top would have. Also, in the example hands I gave, coming over the top with most of them would be a very reasonable play, as Villain would have the fold equity working for him, as well as being able to hit in many cases good draws (around 40%). If the remaining stacks were smaller, I would like checking behind better, because you could induce someone with nothing to bet on the turn, and wouldn't be able to bet enough on the flop to make calling the flop unprofitable. In this scenario waiting makes sense. However, as things are the stacks are large enough that Hero can protect his hand by betting. I still don't know what your plan is on the turn. What do you do if a heart or and Ace comes on the turn and Villain bets? If you look at the range of hands Villain might have, and what would happen if Hero bets 150 vs. if he checks, I would be extremely surprised if checking works out better than betting. But I'm willing to be proven wrong. Make some assumptions, and show me the math.
|
|
#37
11-04-2005, 06:47 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
|
|
#38
11-05-2005, 03:13 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: how i played it
[ QUOTE ]
What if he didn't check the flop and he threw out some kind of bet, what do you do now? Call, raise or fold? Just wondering if you considered that and if you did what you were thinking? Ed S. [/ QUOTE ] My plan if he bet this flop was to call, and get allin on the turn if it was not a heart.
|
|
#39
11-05-2005, 03:16 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: kk vs maniac, dangerous monotone flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] None of the hands you mentioned are going to call a push or likely even bluff at this pot...that's everyones point...if you push against them you are letting them make the right decision...folding...that's the whole point everyone is making...yeah the guy might bluff with total crap...he might not too....if he was going to bluff push over the top of your continuation bet, he's probably going to bluff push the turn too.....why not wait till things look a little better for our hand? [/ QUOTE ] The reason not to wait for the turn is that there are a lot of cards that can possibly beat you. What's your plan if one of these cards comes up? A heart falling is the most obvious scare card, but there's also an Ace, and straight cards that can come up as well. Why let Villain draw at these for free? I disagree that Villain is unlikely to come over the top with the hands I mentioned. He was described as aggresive and pissed off. That's just the mind set that someone who is likely to come over the top would have. Also, in the example hands I gave, coming over the top with most of them would be a very reasonable play, as Villain would have the fold equity working for him, as well as being able to hit in many cases good draws (around 40%). If the remaining stacks were smaller, I would like checking behind better, because you could induce someone with nothing to bet on the turn, and wouldn't be able to bet enough on the flop to make calling the flop unprofitable. In this scenario waiting makes sense. However, as things are the stacks are large enough that Hero can protect his hand by betting. I still don't know what your plan is on the turn. What do you do if a heart or and Ace comes on the turn and Villain bets? If you look at the range of hands Villain might have, and what would happen if Hero bets 150 vs. if he checks, I would be extremely surprised if checking works out better than betting. But I'm willing to be proven wrong. Make some assumptions, and show me the math. [/ QUOTE ] Hi Tewall -- as to giving up a free card, well, really the only hands that I am protecting against with a bet are Ax and some small pocket pair. Those are going to fold. But any piece of the flop is calling and I won't help define his hand or know where I stand. He's 50/50 to have a heart in his hand, that's the most likely draw to hurt me, so I'm going to operate on that assumption.
|
|
#40
11-05-2005, 03:18 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
I decided that if I got a lot of money in on the flop, that money would not be going in with a big edge, and I would get a bigger edge if I waited until a turn no-heart. So I checked. I figured I wanted a small pot if the heart came and maybe could check call or something. If I got a blank, I planned to ship it allin. The turn was not the blankest of blanks. 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], making the board J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Villain led for 1/2 pot, $100, which I interpreted as some sort of weak pair hand. So I pushed. [/ QUOTE ] Villain called with the unexpectedly strong Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], river blanked, my hand was good. He was a slight favorite on the flop and about a 70-30 dog on the turn.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
