my reads got me into a dangerous situation

[TheHammer24]

I really don't like the pf 3-bet. QTs is not a good HU hand. Cold calling would be better IMO but folding would be best. After that, perfect. You almost always have the best hadn on the turn against LAGS. Sweet river.

[damaniac]

Why no raise on the flop?

I have to agree that I think preflop is not good. I don't think you should really worry about table image, etc. It's hard to really put MP on a range of hands preflop, but I don't think isolating with Q10s is a good idea. I could take or leave raising the flop as the board is paired, and I think the turn and river look perfrect.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like the pf 3-bet. QTs is not a good HU hand. Cold calling would be better IMO but folding would be best. After that, perfect. You almost always have the best hadn on the turn against LAGS. Sweet river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a loose/aggressive, poor opponent, I want to isolate with any hand that I'd play in that situation. So I like the 3-bet, although a fold wouldn't be bad either. I think coldcalling would be the worst option here.

From the limited info we have on MP, I think we have to assume that his range of hands crushes Q10s. This is similar to a hand exercise in SSHE when a loose player raises in late MP and we look down and see KJo. We have position on a player that we know plays badly post flop. But I don't think Q10s is good enough to take advantage of this. I think I'm folding.

[smokingrobot]

i figured if i isolated someone, it'd be SB as he was calling or raising anything I threw out.

As for MP, i didnt mind if he came along as his post flop play was ridiculous.

If the flop was extremely bad for me, i would've tossed (and yes wasted 3 SBs). But i felt others would look at me differently and wonder why the hell i was 3-betting and folding the flop.

however the flop have me an open ended and made it easy to call one bet for the turn card.

On the turn i put SB on at most 2 pair and MP on at least trips at the this point. MP was definately a better player than SB though. His aggression was more likely to mean a good hand, but usually its been a 2nd best hand situation.

i can definately see why 3-betting the flop is probably a poor idea though. or even playing this hand in this position.

[smokingrobot]

Hey here's another question about that turn raise.

If you were 90% sure you were betting into a full house here, is that raise still the proper play? In this case, i thought the odds seemed sufficient to see the river card.

[smokingrobot]

i ask this with the fundamental theory of poker in mind. say on this hand and this hand only MP plays his cards face up.

With proper odds to make the turn raise, would you still do it? Or would this cause you to play much meeker in these situations?

It becomes a math problem. If you know he has a full house you only have 2 outs to the str8 flush. You wouldn't have the odds to continue.

I cannot understand why you don't raise this flop. Your equity here is somewhere around 50 percent. Keeping the button in for one bet here isn't worth missing the opportunity to raise.

I'd just like to point out that pot would pay for pokertracker twice. You should buy it.

Nice river. If you're really 90 % sure of a FH on the turn, a raise is awful. We can safely assume 90 % of the time it will be capped, so you're putting in 2 extra bets to win 4 bets. If there's not a full house, it will probably just be called. So 10 percent of the time, you're gaining 2 bets. On the river, you improve to a straight flush ~ 4 percent of the time. Your turn raise probably nets you four extra bets on the river for those times when you make your straight flush (I'm being generous here), and then you can add back in the four BB you made on the turn with your raise.

Weighted: 10 * 2BB = 20 BB
86 * -2BB =-172BB
4 * 8BB = 32 BB
=-120/100 = -1.2 BB. So it's not horrible, but I wouldn't call it a smart move if you're that sure.