Another hand from the archives - Page 4

ErrantNight · #31 09-22-2005, 01:10 PM

any line that involves folding this river is a bad one.

now, if you don't improve, and the river drops the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or something, it goes bet, you call, raise, 3-bet... then you can start that discussion. but for now, don't outthink yourself.

i think someone needs to stop and do some math. hopefully not me. given that there's a small chance the BB is getting donky with something pisspoor for such a strong play, or is overplaying 33 (or oddly playing QQ/KK), combined with the larger chance that he has JT, along with our likely outs if behind + the dead money from the button (factoring in the remote possibility he also has us beat and/or has like, 1 live out against us here)... is our equity high enough to raise? i think it's prolly pretty close. but i'm getting to showdown unless [censored] explodes.

wrto4556 · #32 09-22-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I call. I think it's fairly important to see if Button caps here.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Not only that, the range of hands we have Button on are drawing dead. We dont want him to fold when it gets 2 back to him. We also get lots of action when we fill up most times.

I thought too hard about the hand.

ErrantNight · #33 09-22-2005, 01:11 PM

isn't it pretty clear he has AQ here a vast majority of the time?

ErrantNight · #34 09-22-2005, 01:14 PM

that would be pretty freakin' out of line.

#35 09-22-2005, 01:24 PM

I agree with you that we should not be worried about the button beating us.

I do not think AQ is most likely, though, since there are only three of those combinations left. I am guessing KQ or some sort of semi-bluff flush/straight draw.

ErrantNight · #36 09-22-2005, 01:25 PM

at some point bayesian analysis of his possible hands is overridden by the play. AQ is a far more likely cold-calling hand in general, regardless of how many aces are left.

Jake (The Snake) · #37 09-22-2005, 01:37 PM

I haven't given the hand enough thought yet, it is very interesting.

But my first instinct is to call, as it will make the river less expensive when behind and more profitable when ahead or improved, imo.

#38 09-22-2005, 02:29 PM

The turn looks like a cap to me. If there is an 'x' probability one of them has JT and we know for a fact the other has 2-pair/set hero's equity is: [.167x + (1-x)]*100%

In order for a cap to be profitable this must be greater than 34%. Solving for 'x' tells us that one of the two must have JT 79% or more for capping to not be profitable.

Capping also makes the river easier to play.

Entity · #39 09-22-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
at some point bayesian analysis of his possible hands is overridden by the play. AQ is a far more likely cold-calling hand in general, regardless of how many aces are left.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not "far more" likely when you have to discount AQ to 3 possible combinations, and discount them some because AQs is more likely for coldcalling than AQo.

You can't do this one purely by combinatorial math, but you can't do it just by saying that it's "far more likely." The reason we call rather than capping ourselves is we get much more pure information about the river and our best action on it, and we don't hurt ourselves equity-wise by raising with the worst hand while we're drawing to 8-10 outs.

Rob

ErrantNight · #40 09-22-2005, 02:54 PM

I've yet to hear compelling evidence in support of the assertion that we reaceive much more information about the river if we call.

I think mathematical analysis is definitely needed, and my point about believing the button is more likely on AQ than KQ, wrong or right (and I'm certainly open to being wrong) has nothing to do with it. I don't think you should play this turn looking for information from the button. I'm simply not concerned. I think cold-calling JTs is far enough out of line that we'd know it about this guy by now. Maybe that's being too close-minded of the situation.

I think for other reasons the call may be correct. Because there's a slim (if unlikely) chance we fold the button. Because I haven't done the math and our equity might not be as large as I think it is.

However, if we check and improve and the board pairs we're either going to war with the button (or less likely, both) regardless of the turn action. I think this is a simple "is our equity great enough to raise" issue. I'm inclined to believe that it is, and not inclined to believe we gain any extra information by calling. Other than, perhaps "gee, I was right! button doesn't have the most unlikely hand he could have played this way that beats me!"