Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max - Page 2

swolfe · #11 06-01-2005, 04:10 PM

if he had A7 and called the flop raise, then he's a donk...but a donk that gets my stack.

this is the best possible flop for 22 in an unraised pot (barring quads).

amoeba · #12 06-01-2005, 04:10 PM

after further analysis. I think its an easy fold as the A and K are hearts on the flop therefore he would have to have a QXh to have the flush.

swolfe · #13 06-01-2005, 04:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put him on Axs for the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you normally play with decks that have multiple A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s?

swolfe · #14 06-01-2005, 04:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
after further analysis. I think its an easy fold as the A and K are hearts on the flop therefore he would have to have a QXh to have the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's a 60VPIPer...the flushes he chases are unlikely to be the nuts.

amoeba · #15 06-01-2005, 04:16 PM

still, would he smoothcall the turn 1/2 pot?

I mean he can't expect hero to call a push with 2 pair on the river can he? his river push gets no value.

jbrock · #16 06-01-2005, 04:20 PM

Amoeba nailed this one.

The turn bet looks like you hit the flush and are betting that. I think a very high percentage of the time he has the higher boat (A7 or K7 most likely) and figures you to not fold your hopefully nut flush.

The only other logical thought which I think is unlikely is that he has some A 10 type of hand and is trying to push you off of the flush when the 'scare' card for the flush hits on the river. He is not going to have this often enough to call given the pot odds.

I fold this without a good read on the player. I have learned the hard way that massive overbets like this are the nuts and read the threads about the logic of these massive river bets. They only have to be called every now and then to show a much superior profit to the usual "value-bet".

jb

Final thought: If you have a good note and read that he is a complete donk, I have seen this type of massive overbet when he has the nut flush and is now scared that it is not good. (strong=weak, weak=strong).

amoeba · #17 06-01-2005, 04:23 PM

in this case, I think your turn bet actually worked out for you.

I would be much more inclined to call the river push had I checked through the turn.

xorbie · #18 06-01-2005, 04:32 PM

Thinking more about this, I'm still inclined to call. You are getting 4:3 odds here, which means you need to be good about 40% of the time to break even. He has a flush here occasionaly, and he could very easily have an A and assume he is splitting. Keep in mind your play looks a lot like a strong A, because you raised the flop then made a scared bet when the flush hit. Considering that any A2-AQ (except A7) are all tied as of the river, he could very easily be pushing here with any A and hoping to push you off of a strong one to avoid splitting the pot, and figuring he is going to split if you call anyway.

vanHelsing · #19 06-01-2005, 04:38 PM

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in this case, I think your turn bet actually worked out for you.

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Could have been this way, if I wouldn't suck at poker.

I called and his A7 was good.

Two major leaks of my game are represented in this hand.

I have difficulties to ...

1. ... put my opponents on hands, I would never ever play similar, e.g. calling this flop raise with TPNK OOP.

2. ... fold good hands to massive river bets.

Thanks for all the input. Amazing how many people had the read of A7. Someday I'll find this fold button...

amoeba · #20 06-01-2005, 04:44 PM

its cool dude. I went back and forth on this one and I'm sure many of the other posters did too. In the heat of the moment I think I would have pulled the "this guy is a donk, I'm not folding a fullhouse" call as well.

I think we all benefit alot from thinking through the situation on each street. Just wish the timer online was longer.