PFR and middle pair

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I think ~4 outs is more realistic (probably even generous)as the Q (and 2pr) outs could already be dead. Given 4 outs you need 11:1 and only getting 9:1. You could say you're pretty much guaranteed 1 exta BB on the river but it still doesn't make up for the times Hero makes his hand and is still beaten.

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Imagining that a queen out is somehow dead is a bit MUBS-y to me. I don't give villain credit for a set this soon, and I certainly don't give him credit for KQ. I'll grant that AK is a possibility, but I would have expected that to 3-bet preflop, so I'm not so convinced that it's likely. Remember that we're assuming that the turn is *NOT* a jack or ten, so you're not worried about the straight falling if you hit your ace.

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I'm not giving villian credit for anything yet either but I think if he RAISES my turn bet I can start to discount my outs considerably.

[Aaron W.]

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I'm not giving villian credit for anything yet either but I think if he RAISES my turn bet I can start to discount my outs considerably.

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I don't like that word. In order for your outs to be considerably dirty, one of the following must have happened.

1) Villain did not 3-bet AA preflop.
2) Villain did not 3-bet KK preflop.
3) Villain did not 3-bet QQ preflop.
4) Villain did not 3-bet AK preflop.
5) Villain did not 3-bet KQ preflop.


Now one of these might have happened (KQ is the most likely candidate), but I think this is somewhat rare given that villain only needed to call a single bet preflop since he posted; so his hand range is going to be much broader than if he had cold-called. Of the remaining hands that villain might have, 55 is the only one where hero is in trouble.

There are times when villain raises a flush draw, but when that happens, hero is an 80-20 favorite unless villain has Kx[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I think it's more reasonable that villain has a lesser top pair hand (KJ-K9) and believes top pair is good (which it is). This is more likely to be true since hero's line seems unnatural for TPTK. Since you have no read on villain, you have no clue what he's doing or thinking, and this mess is quite a bit more jumbled.

In cases like this, I'm more inclined to err towards being a little too loose than a little too tight. The donk factor tends to be large enough against an unknown to justify it.

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I'm not giving villian credit for anything yet either but I think if he RAISES my turn bet I can start to discount my outs considerably.

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I don't like that word. In order for your outs to be considerably dirty, one of the following must have happened.

1) Villain did not 3-bet AA preflop.
2) Villain did not 3-bet KK preflop.
3) Villain did not 3-bet QQ preflop.
4) Villain did not 3-bet AK preflop.
5) Villain did not 3-bet KQ preflop.


Now one of these might have happened (KQ is the most likely candidate), but I think this is somewhat rare given that villain only needed to call a single bet preflop since he posted; so his hand range is going to be much broader than if he had cold-called. Of the remaining hands that villain might have, 55 is the only one where hero is in trouble.

There are times when villain raises a flush draw, but when that happens, hero is an 80-20 favorite unless villain has Kx[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I think it's more reasonable that villain has a lesser top pair hand (KJ-K9) and believes top pair is good (which it is). This is more likely to be true since hero's line seems unnatural for TPTK. Since you have no read on villain, you have no clue what he's doing or thinking, and this mess is quite a bit more jumbled.

In cases like this, I'm more inclined to err towards being a little too loose than a little too tight. The donk factor tends to be large enough against an unknown to justify it.

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To be fair, I didn't like the word either. I think - moderately is more appropriate.

And I think a 1 out discount is reasonable [ and as I said before, probably even generous ], making the call -EV.

If Hero hadn't been the PFR, I might make this call but that not being the case, I'm more inclined to err on the side of a 'little too tight'.

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unless he has KQ, AK, or a set or I guess Q5(granny?) your 2pair outs are all live