Yet Another Pot Odds Question

[Dave H.]

I posted the following in the Probablility section, but it probably should have gone here instead (please help!):

I'm a beginner and have read SSH and HEFAP. I've read many of the posts on this great site, and decided to read TOP based on all the info I've read. After getting throught the pot odds section, I got myself totally confused and I really thought I had understood this before!

Here's my "practical" question:

I have four to a flush on the flop. To call a bet at that time, do I need pot odds of at least 1.9 or do I need pot odds of at least 4.1?

What if I miss on the turn. What pot odds will I now need?

Thank you.

[Bodhi]

4.1 I believe, you have 9 outs (8 outs is 4.75-1). If you're in late position try the free card play by raising a small bet, and then checking the turn.

[Dave H.]

This seems to be a very critical point, i.e. I'm sitting there with a four flush on the flop and saying it will be the nuts if I get a draw with either of the next 2 cards. I guess I can understand how I need at least 4.2 pot odds on ONE card, but why on TWO cards?
HELP!...that makes a big difference!

[Bodhi]

oh, ok I didn't see the specific nature of your question. With a 4-flush on the flop you will make your draw 35% of the time by the river (that's a figure I've memorized). Make sure that the bet you invest is not more than 35% of the pot and you are fine (implied odds make this a border you can lean over, too).

[Mangatang]

No, no, no. Always use the odds of hitting your hand on the next card only. So for a 4-flush on the flop, you need to be getting about 4:1 to call.

The reason you should only consider the next card is because conditions can change on the turn. You may not have the odds to call on the turn (because people fold or there is a raise, etc.) So you correctly fold on the turn. But that means that your original assumption that you had 2 cards to come, on the flop, was incorrect. So you were using the wrong odds.

I use these estimations on both the flop and turn:

11:1 gutshot
5:1 open-ender
4:1 4-flush

[huxbux]

The odds with two cards to come are your effective pot odds, while taking odds with one card to come are your immediate pot odds. TOP covered the differences, so you should go back and reread that section.

[Dave H.]

Thank you for your post. Actually, that is PRECISELY what was confusing me. I can hardly believe that you pointed out the EXACT section that had my brain whirling!

Believe me, I read and reread and reread that section. I understood it to be telling me that I was using pot odds (4.1 to 1 with a four flush on the flop to hit on the next card) when deciding whether to call and that, instead, I should be using effective odds. So let's continue. How would you figure those effective odds with say, $10 in the pot preflop in a $1/$2 limit holdem game with myself and two others. I get a four flush on the flop, it's one bet to me and I figure all 3 of us will be calling to the end of the hand.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
No, no, no. Always use the odds of hitting your hand on the next card only. So for a 4-flush on the flop, you need to be getting about 4:1 to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, no, no, you are very wrong.

Effective odds (as another poster mentioned) is what you need to use for 2 cards to come. If you always see just 1 card, you are costing yourself money.

Effective odds, with 2 cards to come, seems to be one of the most misunderstood aspects of hold'em. Before you go telling someone "no no no" make sure you are right. You usually are, Mangatang, but not in this case.

On a side note, you are almost always getting 4:1 on both streets in low limit games, regardless. Also, never forget about including your implied odds for when you do hit your flush. This is important as well when the call is marginal (for other draws), as you will almost ALWAYS get paid off in 1 or 2 spots in small stakes games. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Cooker]

When using effective odds, you are basically thinking about going all the way to the river, so you must include the current and all future bets on both sides of the pot odds (you can even include some implied odds if you hit). In the case of a 4 flush, this means you only need 2 to 1 on the current plus all future bets in order to go to the river.

For your specific example, this works out as:

effective pot = $10 + $2 (other callers this round) + $4 (other callers on the turn) = $16

your effective bet = $1 (bet this round) + $2 (bet on turn) = $3

So your effective pot odds are 16 to 3 or 5.3 to 1, so you should definitely plan to call all the way to the river. For implied odds, you could also include the bet on the river if you hit into the effective pot, but you don't need to include your bet on the river into your effective bet, because you won't even call a bet on the end if you don't hit. In general, I would be more conservative with assuming the number of other players that will stay in to the river, but you specifically stated that all 3 would stay in. It is pretty well known that if 2 opponents will stay to the river with you, you are always correct to call all bets with a flush draw, since you will automatically be getting 2 to 1 on all current and future bets.

If your effective odds don't indicate a call, you may still be correct to take 1 more card, but then you must have a full 4 to 1 in pot odds not considering future bets.

If you have position and think a raise will buy you a free card on the turn, you only need to be getting 2 to 1 on a raise with the current pot, because you won't have to pay any extra bets to see the river. For this play, you must know your opponents are capable of slowing down enough, because getting reraised on the flop and bet into on the turn if you don't hit would be a disaster (and you must do this to tricky devils that try this play against you).

There are many considerations to playing these strong draws, but in low limit, you will often have enough callers post flop to allow a lot of flexibility in your play and still be getting correct odds. I think saying you must have 4 to 1 is really costing one a lot of profitable situations in low limit games.

In no limit you must almost always have 4 to 1 except in cases where you or your opponent is all in, in which case you only need 2 to 1 since there will be no future bets. This is because there is no way to accurately estimate the bet you will be facing on the turn if you miss in NL.

[Dave H.]

What a PERFECT explanation!! I finally understand it!! You know, I hope every beginner reads this because it's so important to understand, and you explained it very, very well.

Thanx a bunch for the time and the thought you put into this response!