5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviousl this board is draw heavy and a big raise is needed. Heres my question / problem with it though.

He limped with 22. He called $30 more (obvious call)
He needs to make about $240 to break even since hes gonna have to fold almost every time he doesnt hit a set. Actually its probably closer to $300 to cover the times he gets set over setted.

He only made about $200 on this hand so in terms of EV, you could say he actually lost money.

If he makes a bigger flop raise, the guy may fold and then he makes even less. I realize that if he doesnt raise, he takes a chance of losing a big pot, but it also makes it look likes OP is drawing if he just calls the flop. He can then raise a non flush card turn.

Im not saying that calling the flop on this draw heavy board is correct, necessarily. Im just wondering if anyone else thinks this way. In terms of EV, he wouldve been better folding to the preflop raise even thought the call was clearly correct at the time.

Does anyone else think like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha. So on average if we win $300, and in this instance we only made $200, needing $240 to break even, should we fold in the future?