Houston texans and losing teams.

Lol, no problem Easy, I've been guilty of a poor sarcasm detector at times here too. I was laughing at the sports bar at the irony of losing this bet. I had the under too which went up in flames with that TD when it was 27-17. Good thing I was home for Thanksgiving because anything I bet last weekend was destined for failure.

[bluffski]

So the responders who posted. Your telling me in your handicapping you dont take into consideration a team playing for something more than the regular season? You dont take into account a team that has had plenty of chances to win games but find ways to lose in the end during the season? Of course I do not just see whose playing for a playoff spot or clinch homefield, division etc... and bet just on that factor. However, I think completely ignoring it and relying only on statistics from the past is not quite correct either. To me, ignoring that would be like ignoring tommy maddox starting for the steelers. Another question I have is does anyone do statistical observation on teams in the past 10 years who have covered ats when playing for more the regular season ie playoff spots, homfield adv, division clinch games, wildcard berths.

Do you not think the line accounted for the fact that the Rams were "playing for something"? 1-9 last 10 road games, one of the 5 worst defenses in the NFL, *Jamie Martin* at QB, yet they were giving 3.5 (I assume you know the difference between giving 2.5 and 3.5). The more I read what you're saying, the more I doubt we'd be having this conversation if the Texans had covered.

You seem to think teams that are out of the playoff race "give up". This isn't high school or sub-division 1 football, these men are playing for their careers every Sunday. Why did the 1-7 Texans cover 17.5 at the 8-0 Colts in week 10? or the 1-6 Texans almost beat the 4-3 Jags straight up at Jax? Continue cherry-picking cases to make your point, it really enhances your credibility.

[eggzz]

I finished second last year in the handicapping contest here, and if you look back at many of my bets, you will see that they were populated by teams like the Texans, Bears, Tampa - I don't really remember who all of the really bad teams were - point is, thats who I consistently found myself playing, as opposed to the Indys and the Steelers week after week.

I stayed away from the games that were in the public spotlight and concentrated on these lesser matchups. Maybe that steered me away from more trap lines, who knows. (When I say trap lines, I refer to the more scrutinized matchups among teams that the public likes to bet. I believe these are sometimes sharper and harder to figure out, so I steer away from these types of games). All I know is that I'm in the top ten (I think) again this year, and the Texans and the Niners were plays of mine this week. My first losing week in about six.

You have to look at all the games on the board, and whittle them down to a handful that you think provides value versus the line. You also can't get caught up in the teams that "must win". Did you bet San Diego this week because they just had to win against Washington? Well if you did, you got as lucky as the Rams bettors did this week. I stayed far away from that game, but had I bet it, I would have ended up on the losing side.

One thing I have learned from years of ups and downs betting this game is, you have to take what a team did last week with a grain of salt when you are trying to figure out how they are going to play this week. Case in point - Miami Dolphins. I had the Raiders teased, and I had the Raiders in a 5 teamer, all they had to do was win. How could they not win at home, against a team that got shut out by the Browns? I'll tell you how, because that was last week, and they were able to wipe that pitiful performance out of their minds right quick. Looking back at that bet, I should have listened to my gut more. There was obviously a reason why I only put the Raiders in a tease and in a parlay on the money line. Why was I so worried about the cover? They should have killed Miami. But they didn't. So even though I should have known better, I still couldn't resist. (Hey, even good handicappers are going to lose more than 40% of their selections!)

I'll tell you what. Looking hard at the Titans this week.

3-8 versus 11-0.

Sure, why not.

It is the NFL.

Good luck

[bluffski]

Ok again i ask does anyone do statistical observation on specific teams (in the past 5-10 years) who have covered ats when playing for more the regular season ie playoff spots, homfield adv, division clinch games, wildcard berths. In other words does the specific team cover the line more, less, or same. It is difficult for me to disagree with some of your point because they do seem valid, but my feeling from your posts is you dont give too much credit to factors such as these. your point on these people are playing for their jobs just doesnt sit to well with me. Why do you think home team lines are moved 3 points either way most of the time. Its because the people playin are human. Motivation plays a big factor in football. Whether it be getting home faster, not having to travel, fan support etc... The nba shows this. Look at regular season vs playoff games. Im not trying to pick on just this houston game. If you want lets look at some games in the coming weeks with the same criteria. Examples would be the bucs/saints, bears/packers, ravens/texans, patriots/jets. With the bucs/saints game as the 1 i would look at as most similar.

[ QUOTE ]
my feeling from your posts is you dont give too much credit to factors such as these.

[/ QUOTE ]

You underestimate how often the line accounts for the factors you mention.

Also, I was responding to this which you wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
Your telling me in your handicapping you dont take into consideration a team playing for something more than the regular season? You dont take into account a team that has had plenty of chances to win games but find ways to lose in the end during the season?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have trends that determine what you're looking for but goldsheet.com may be a good place to start.

[ QUOTE ]
your point on these people are playing for their jobs just doesnt sit to well with me. Why do you think home team lines are moved 3 points either way most of the time. Its because the people playin are human.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to have to explain this a little further.

[OrianasDaad]

Wow, I just realized what a donk I am. I took the Chargers AND the Rams last week! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I routinely bet against the worst teams. It's doing well for me, but this is my first venture into sports betting, and making 48 picks with a plus score doesn't mean squat.

I'm taking three road favorites this week. The teams that I'm betting against are the 49ers, Browns, Jets and Lions.

I'd bet that alot of beginners look at sports-betting the same way that I do. Not much in the way of stats. No real knowledge of strategy. Just picking good teams to do what they do well. (OK, I'm taking the Cardinals this week, so sue me.)

I'll learn more in the offseason, and even more next season, and maybe I'll become a better handicapper. Right now it's just fun.

Lastly, as a 10 year casual NFL fan, I've never seen a team not show up and at least try to win. I'm a Colts fan, and boy they used to be able to screw good things up pretty bad, but I don't think they every stopped trying to win. The Lions, on the other hand...

Not much content here in my post. Just want to offer a perspective from a beginning handicapper.

[bluffski]

in your previous post you say that I underestimate how often the line accounts for the factors you mention. The factors being motivation for winning and playing up to the team's potential. So then motivation for playing good is a factor in the line. If motivation is a factor in the line then what if any do you put in your system a team's motivation for winning. If you do not have past historical references to this like I was referring to (5-10 years ats playoff chance etc) then how can you tell whether or not the line being given is a true line when you compare it to what your system says. The following is an explanation you were asking for. I was stating that all players dont simply play their complete best in fear of losing their jobs. There are outside determining factors that need to be taken into consideration as to whether a player or a team is going to play his best on any given day. Remember, however, some of the factors below might even make a player or team play better as when they are on the field they can actually block out all the other stuff. I stated playoff race as one. Here are a few more. Is he sick, injured, death in family, drug problem, fight with the wife, caught cheating on wife, baby coming, friend hospitalized, friend dying, doesnt like teammates, doesnt like coach, is upset with his contract, legal problems, doenst like how many times hes getting the ball, traveling a big road trip, doesnt like flying, homesick, someone in family hospitalized And so on and so forth. I was simply rebutting the statement these guys are professional and they are in fear of losing there jobs so theyre going to play at their best no matter what is simply wrong. Man whoever could write a statistical database not only for this and pure statistical data for teams and then a program to sort all of this data please let me know

[bluffski]

ps I like your reports everyweek. Very easy to look thru with notations of week posts. Although I dont like to use teasers, I do like some of your straight bets, and when I dont like them I at least try to figure out why you did.