Swing State prediction contest

[Nate tha' Great]

Somebody was going to do this, so I figured it might as well be me.

These are the 19 states that are still in contention, according to RealClearPolitics. The electoral vote counts are included in parenthesis. RCP assumes that 149 electoral votes are solid for Kerry, and 191 for Bush, so if you're trying to engineer a result for your favorite candidate, you can work from there.

There will be no prize for the contest, however I'll be happy to tally the results once the outcomes are certified in each state. The contest will be scored as follows:

1. Number of states picked correctly
2. Number of states picked correctly, weighted by Electoral votes
3. +/- differential in overall Electoral Vote prediction
4. +/- differential in Popular Vote predicton

Entries must be submitted by Sunday at 5 PM Central Time or I won't count them. Have fun.

AR (6)
CO (9)
IA (7)
FL (27)
HI (4)
ME (4)
MN (10)
MI (17)
MO (11)
NH (4)
NJ (15)
NM (5)
NV (5)
OH (20)
OR (7)
PA (21)
WV (5)
WA (11)
WI (10)
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place):
Electoral Result:

I've included my predictions below.

====

AR (6) - Kerry
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Bush
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Kerry
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Bush
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +0.6
Electoral Result: Kerry 275, Bush 263.