Fantasy football theory

[Aces McGee]

THis is going to be a long post. It's about trading with other teams at the top of your league. I've been thinking about this for a couple of days because of a situation I'm in in one of my leagues.

I'm in a $100 Yahoo! single-season league with a bunch of people I've never played with and don't know all that well. They do the league every year (they're all friends/family) and a friend of mine invited me to participate this season.

It's a 14-team league, but only 13 teams have actual owners (the 14th guy bailed and so we created a ghost that doesn't have any players of note, never starts anyone in the active roster, and is therefore essentially a bye week for his opponent.

Simply put, most of the players in the league aren't any good. They are the classic "fill-out-the-roster-before-drafting-backups" crowd, and they all carry two quarterbacks, backup kickers, they stick with one defense, etc. They're casual players, for the most part; they take a very active role in terms of transactions, but don't do a lot of "studying" fantasy theory, if that makes sense.

We start 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF. 6 pts for all TDs, 10 yds/pt for rushing and receiving, 50 yds/pt for passing. Turnovers are -3. Kickers get extra points for longer field goals, and don't lose points for missing field goals. Defense gets the Yahoo! standard 10 pts for a shutout, 7 for allowing 1-6, 4 for 7-13, 1 for 14-20, -1 for 28-34, -4 for 35+. One point for a sack, 3 pts for a turnover, 2 for a blocked kick, 6 for defensive and special teams TDs.

Our playoffs are weeks 14-16. Six teams make it; the top two teams get byes into the semis starting week 15.

Most of that is unnecessary, but I figured I'd include it.

Here's my team:

QB: Bulger, Holcomb (had him around in case Bulger wasn't ready to go and haven't released him yet)
RB: Alexander, Jordan, S. Jackson, Droughns, Fisher (time to dump this guy)
WR: C. Johnson, Fitzgerald, Evans, Burleson (speculatively snatched off of waivers after being dropped), D. Bennett (ditto)
TE: Crumpler
K: Mare (picked up to replace Elam on a bye week and didn't bother switching this week)
DEF: Rotating each week (I'm the only one in the league who does this.

I got Jackson two weeks ago, when a guy was in serious bye week trouble, and I traded Thomas Jones for him straight up.

Anyway...

I'm 10-0. I've scored 984 points. Only two other teams are even close, in terms of points:

Team A is 8-2 with 943 points.
Team B is 5-5 with 921 points.

Team A is in second place in the league, tied with another team at 8-2 but ahead on point differential. The other 8-2 team is in the middle of the pack in terms of points.

Here's where it gets interesting. Here's Team A's roster:

QB: Palmer, Delhomme
RB: Foster, W. Parker, Benson
WR: S. Smith, Holt, Glenn, Curtis, Stokley
TE: Gates, Franks
K: Rackers
DEF: Washington, Buffalo

As you can see, Team A is in desperate need of a running back, and I've got one to spare.

Here's where the theory comes in. I've long believed that you shouldn't trade with your close competition unless the trade clearly benefits you more than it benefits him. And while whoever I'd get from my opponent would certainly be more valuable to me than a running back who sits on my bench, I'm apprehensive about giving Team A -- statistically my closest rival -- another weapon, even if it means taking one of his away. I'm fairly confident in my team's superiority over his, due to his RB situation (injuries killed him, he had McAllister), but the temptation to improve my team by giving up a player I'm not even using is great.

Complicating matters is Team B, the third-highest scoring team, although as it stands, he's in danger of missing the playoffs (top six make it, he's in 7th). His team is:

QB: McNabb, Green
WR: Burress, Driver, Lloyd, Owens
RB: Tomlinson, C. Martin, Ri. Williams, K. Johnson (Denver)
K: Vinatieri, Vanderjagt
DEF: Carolina, Dallas

With Owens out, I'm worried that Team B will try to trade Ricky to Team A. If Team A is going to benefit and help his team out, I'd like to benefit myself, too, and I'd like to keep Team B out of it. That is, if two of the top three teams are going to complete a trade with each other, I'd like to be one of them.

I realize this is a long, involved post, and I'm not necessarily asking advice, although whatever you've got is appreciated. But I haven't seen a ton written or discussed on this subject, and I think it is the basis for what could be an interesting discussion. I've had fun thinking about it, and my friends and I have had some lively discussion regarding it.

So...

1)Do you ever trade with your main competition in a league?
2)If yes, just how good does the deal have to be?

Feel free to use my situation (outlined above) for examples of deals you might do. Assume that you can get a receiver like Derrick Mason or Lavaranues Coles for Droughns from a team that is basically out of contention, as an alternative (I've been offered both of those players for Droughns).

Thanks for reading.

[Sluss]

I'm always a big fan of improving my team. It doesn't matter to me either way. I'll trade with the first place team if the match-ups work out for me.

In this situation I would offer the guy a trade. Maybe Jackson for Smith. The point is it makes your team better in the long run and that is the most important thing. If you remove all weakness from your team, i.e. your third receiver, you can really blow some teams out. Sure it might help the second best team, but it basically gives him the same weakness that you just had. If you think he might make the other trade be worried. If you don't think he will stand pat. But since your probably not sure, being your first year in the league, I would try and make the trade.

Just to point out I practice what I preach, two weeks ago I made a Priest Holmes for Torry Holt trade. And I was playing the guy the next week which was Holt's bye week. I was in third place he was in first. I almost waited, but decided not too. Holmes gets hurt the week I trade him now I have Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Domminick Davis, Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne and Lavernious Coles. Blow him out of the water the week I play him and now I am a half game out of first and his team is spiraling downward.

[Aces McGee]

Hi Sluss

Thanks for your response. I think this is an interesting topic.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm always a big fan of improving my team.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's as simple as this.

As it stands now, my team is superior to his, and with his running back situation, he has little "big week" potential. If I trade him a running back for a wideout, while I'm undoubtedly improving my team, I'm giving him the opportunity to chase me down in the playoffs, on the chance that I have a week where my players don't play as well as expected.

That's the counter-argument, anyway, and what's keeping me from offering him the deal.

-McGee

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
As it stands now, my team is superior to his, and with his running back situation, he has little "big week" potential. If I trade him a running back for a wideout, while I'm undoubtedly improving my team, I'm giving him the opportunity to chase me down in the playoffs, on the chance that I have a week where my players don't play as well as expected.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is a valid point. That's why I said that you should really only make the trade offer if you think that the guy can make another trade to give him a team that could beat yours.

See I like a team that doesn't have a "bad week" sometimes this means my teams don't always "big weeks" but I love a team that is so deep that it scores a consistent amount of points every week.

[jedi]

One other thing you should consider are the matchups the players have during the last few weeks of the season, your playoff weeks. You don't want to trade a marginal player for another marginal player (who may very well help your team) if the guy you trade away turns out to have a soft playoff schedule.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]

One other thing you should consider are the matchups the players have during the last few weeks of the season, your playoff weeks. You don't want to trade a marginal player for another marginal player (who may very well help your team) if the guy you trade away turns out to have a soft playoff schedule.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi jedi,
I agree with the general principle and it should be the deciding factor in whether I gave up Jackson over Jordan. But if we're taking truly marginal, like Reuben Droughns marginal, then I don't think it matters; I can't imagine a non-injury scenario where I'd start Droughns over Jordan or Jackson (and certainly not Alexander) -- and I don't even know what their playoff schedules are.

-McGee