allowing your opponent to martingale you - Page 2

pzhon · #11 07-24-2005, 07:12 AM

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But how could you finish on plus if the Martingale system player won the last game?

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My opponent wasn't quite doubling up, and in the last match he was only trying to win 2/3 of his money back.

Playing against a martingale or near-martingale is like entering a tournament. Some people focus on the likely loss, but my return on investment is high when I play in large tournaments. Of course, my risk of getting stiffed is lower in real tournaments, but this opponent was also weaker than most of my tournament opponents.

Ortho · #12 07-24-2005, 08:41 AM

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Why do casinos have a maximum bet limit on EVERY game they offer?

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casinos face no risk of a large loss against someone playing a martingale.

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100% wrong.

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No you're 100% wrong.

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Actually, the guy who said 100% wrong the first time was right. There are some ultra rich people who like to gamble and gamble big. They have been known to put the scare into casinos because of the sheer size of their bets and the facts of probability and standard deviation.

There is one Australian gambler in particular who within the last few years actually broke the bank of any overseas casino and shut them down until they could get a fresh infusion of cash.

There are several super-whales around the world that love to gamble for huge money. The casinos love their action because they will end up ahead in the long run. But the short term fluctuations can be significant enough to give any casino manager heartburn. We're talking about people who gamble well into 6 figures on every bet. So simple probablility makes swings of +/- many millions of dollars per hour very likely.

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You don't understand. Even if the martingaling guy bets a gajillion dollars, we already have a gajillion-1 of his money. Our risk is minimal.

Wacken · #13 07-24-2005, 09:24 AM

This whole doubling strategy is BS. I hear it from more people who don't understand a thing about chances and gambling like to do it with blackjack so that they "can't lose"

Just look at each game independendly. If you wanna commit the stakes he asks and you think your chance of winning makes it +EV, play it.

cardcounter0 · #14 07-24-2005, 11:41 AM

I didn't hear an answer.

>>>>Why do casinos have a maximum bet limit on EVERY game they offer?<<<<<

cardcounter0 · #15 07-24-2005, 11:42 AM

Why do casinos have a maximum bet limit on EVERY game they offer?

cardcounter0 · #16 07-24-2005, 11:48 AM

Actually, looking at each game "independendly" is the problem. If you are going to allow someone to martingale on you, and he has enough bankroll to play against you for "X" games, then you are not betting on the +/- EV of winning a game, the bet is now what is the probability of winning "X" games consectively with the +/- EV on each game.

In other words, the odds of flipping heads or tails is 50/50. Allowing someone to martingale 4 times on a coin flip now means, I have to flip heads 4 times in a row to make money. A much different situation.

cardcounter0 · #17 07-24-2005, 11:54 AM

From Phzon:

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, but casinos face no risk of a large loss against someone playing a martingale.

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From you, supposedly in 100% agreement:

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Your biggest long-term losses will be smaller when the other player is martingaling.

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Can you spot any problems?

Komodo · #18 07-24-2005, 12:01 PM

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
From Phzon:

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
, but casinos face no risk of a large loss against someone playing a martingale.

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From you, supposedly in 100% agreement:

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
Your biggest long-term losses will be smaller when the other player is martingaling.

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Can you spot any problems?

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No, can you? English is not my native, but i think theyre essentially saying the same thing.

Komodo · #19 07-24-2005, 12:07 PM

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
Actually, looking at each game "independendly" is the problem. If you are going to allow someone to martingale on you, and he has enough bankroll to play against you for "X" games, then you are not betting on the +/- EV of winning a game, the bet is now what is the probability of winning "X" games consectively with the +/- EV on each game.

In other words, the odds of flipping heads or tails is 50/50. Allowing someone to martingale 4 times on a coin flip now means, I have to flip heads 4 times in a row to make money. A much different situation.

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You are rigth in that sense. It takes more time to make money against someone using Martingale. Overall though the risk is very small, since every loss will be minimal.

Wacken · #20 07-24-2005, 01:37 PM

It has an effect on that particular day's variance.

It has no effect weird effect on your EV. If you are equal players, your EV is 0, no matter if you double the stakes after every game or not.

As someone said it becomes more like a tournament, yes that is correct. You have a smaller chance of winning, but if you win, the profit will be proportionally larger.

So in the long run, it matters [censored]. If he thinks it gives him an advantage and that makes him happy, go along and double those stakes.