Why bet/fold so much?

[paperboyNC]

I notice that this forum advocates bet/folding the river a lot. However, the biggest mistake in limit hold'em is to fold to one bet on the river, particularly in a large pot.

Doesn't bet/folding the river also encourage opponents to bluff raise the river and be more tricky against you in general?

One way to test the EV of bet/folding the river, is there a filter for pokertracker to see how often you win after calling a river raise?

[billy51]

I think this is a really interesting point. In fact, in a lot of the situations where posters on this forum advocate a bet/fold line on the river, I find that I often use a bet/crying call line, just to guard against a bluff or an overplayed hand. I'm sure I make some bad river calls, but I think there is something to be said for erring on the side of calling too many river raises to guard against forfeiting an entire pot by folding a winning hand.

[silkyslim]

i personally feel this is advocated too much. this line is very good against loose passives who dont bluff, which are numerous in small stakes games. this way, you dont miss value because they will call but not bet with a million hands you beat, and you still only pay one bet when behind, becasue they will only raise with hands that beat you. against tricky or tight opponents it may be better to check/call, on one hand to induce bluffs and on the other to eliminate the bluff raise. also, i think the general consensus is that river check-raises arent bluffs when OOP, so you can safely fold mediocre hands.

[W. Deranged]

Bet/folding is a very hard thing to get comfortable with and I, personally, took a long time before I could do it with the very limited sense of equanimity that I can now.

Yes, you are right, bet-folding too much encourages river bluffs. But, I think you might find that bet-folding is advocated in this forum far more than others precisely because of the nature of the small stakes game. In our games, our opponents generally are not of the sophistication to pick up on our tendencies (like bet-folding too much) or to be able to selectively and profitably bluff raise the river. (Those players who do bluff raise the river at the small stakes level tend to be very obvious about it and do it way too much, and so with reasonable statistics and observation we know who they are).

So, yes, your concern is a good one, but one that is, in my opinion, far more applicable in mid-stakes or higher-stakes games (and also in live rather than online) than in the Party 3/6-type universe in which we reside.

[oxymoron]

I suck and don't do it enough

[toby]

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is there a filter for pokertracker to see how often you win after calling a river raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be an intersting stat to check out. I feel like a lot of time my bet/crying calls lose to the obvious suckout hand, but occasionally you win a big pot against some bizarre bluff and to be honest, I have no idea if I win money or lose money after calling that river raise.

That being said, the bet/fold line seems like one that should be carefully used against the correct opponent.

[mack848]

I personally feel that I don’t use the bet/fold line enough. At Small Stakes I believe that we should, if anything, find it easier to bet/fold, than we do check/crying call.

The logic that ‘folding the river for one bet is the biggest mistake in hold’em’ is the root of a lot of player’s anxiety. Unless your judgement of the likelihood of holding the second best hand is drastically out, this is simply not the case.


For example.

You have middle pair on the river HU against a weak player who has bet. You judge that you are good about 10% of the time and the pot is 7BB. If your judgement is correct the EV is (0.10 x 7) + (0.90 x –1)= -0.2 : a fold.

But let’s say that your actual chance of winning was twice what you guessed. The EV of calling now is (0.20 x 7) + (0.8 x –1) = 0.6 : a call.

Folding after misjudging your winning chances by 100% is a 0.8BB error; a sizeable one, yes, but hardly ‘the biggest mistake in hold’em’. I think that some players instinctively believe that they have made a 7BB error here.


At Small Stakes I think that a bet/folding mistake is likely to be smaller than a check/crying call mistake, as river bluff raises are so rare. Just think how often you bet/crying call and find they were bluffing – I can’t remember many at 2/4 or 3/6. Our PT stats will also give us a fair indication of whether the opponent is capable of this play.

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I suck and don't do it enough

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[UCLAseetoK]

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[ QUOTE ]
I suck and don't do it enough

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[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, you are right, bet-folding too much encourages river bluffs. But, I think you might find that bet-folding is advocated in this forum far more than others precisely because of the nature of the small stakes game. In our games, our opponents generally are not of the sophistication to pick up on our tendencies (like bet-folding too much) or to be able to selectively and profitably bluff raise the river. (Those players who do bluff raise the river at the small stakes level tend to be very obvious about it and do it way too much, and so with reasonable statistics and observation we know who they are).

So, yes, your concern is a good one, but one that is, in my opinion, far more applicable in mid-stakes or higher-stakes games (and also in live rather than online) than in the Party 3/6-type universe in which we reside.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the metagame considerations at Party are very minimal. People just don't stay at the table long enough.