Inducing a mistake?

[soah]

For a long time I've been pretty rigid in keeping constant bet sizes regardless of the strength of my hand. The only times I would vary significantly would be if there were four cards to a flush on the board, the remaining stack sizes were ackward, or some other unusual circumstances. The theory was that I didn't want to give out any information on the strength of my hand. I think that this is the wrong approach. Giving away information is only harmful if your opponent can correctly analyze the information most of the time. Against players who do not think as deeply as I do, I should be able to manipulate them into making bigger mistakes. Giving away information can only become harmful when it gets to the point that my opponent can recognize patterns in my betting. As long as my opponents do not know me well, and/or I am randomizing my betting deviations sufficiently, my opponents can only guess at what my unusual bet means.

Lately, I have been looking for spots to start experimenting with odd bets. Here is a hand I played:

2/4 6-max. The player in the button's seat may or may not have been sitting out this hand. I'm not sure. So either five- or six-handed. UTG raises to $13. Next guy folds. Very mediocre super-LAG folds. This guy has been getting involved in a ton of hands and attempting to push people around. He has built up a very large stack despite the fact that he isn't very good at what he's doing. He's not involved in this hand, but it's worth mentioning him since it makes it much less likely for UTG to be raising marginal cards (the LAG min-reraises extremely often). The SB calls. I have KK in the BB. I carefully analyze the situation, and then proceed to completely botch everything up by raising to only $45. Fortunately UTG folds, and SB calls. SB is pretty tight and not too bad, but not too great either. Earlier when the game was three-handed he accidently picked me off when I raised 54o on the button and bet the flop. He had check-called the flop with just a draw and won with no pair when the turn and river were checked through. He checked the hand history to see what I had and expressed a bit of shock at me getting out of line like that. Overall he should view me as tight/solid and tricky/aggressive (I was tangling a fair amount with the LAG when it was three-handed but when the game was full I mostly stayed away). He started this hand with roughly $350, I think.

So off to the flop we go, and I expect him to hold a pocket pair at least 90% of the time here and AK almost all of the rest of the time. Flop comes out scattered low cards, he checks to me, and there's $100 in the pot. According to all the previous hands he has seen me play, I should bet $66-85 here with whatever I have.

I bet $40.

<font color="#666666">Here's a quick recap for those that got lost: UTG ($600) raises to $13, fold, fold, next guy either folds or was sitting out (can't remember), SB ($350) calls, I ($600) raise to $45 in bb with KK, UTG folds, SB calls. Flop is non-broadway garbage, SB checks, I bet $40 into a $100 pot.</font>