NLH - Interesting situation for Presto

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If I raise to T18K and get reraised, there isn't going to be enough chips left in my stack to make any meaningful reraise. In other words, there are only going to be 2 raises in this pot total, whomever makes them.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Greg (FossilMan)]

It is a very rare spot this late in a tournament where it is correct to limp as the first one in.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[MuckMuck]

I think with aggressive players behind you I'd fold for the same reasons as Capone stated...I dont like getting involved with small pair with aggressive players behind me. Another option I would consider would be the limp/reraise but at this point in the tourney I'd Muck and pick a better spot. The other option to me is go all in...but what if someone behind you has a real hand? Then you are risking your stack for blinds? I dont like those odds.

[Che]

Ante was 300 so seven players means pot is T11,100.

At this stage a couple of huge stacks are usually skewing the averages so your average stack probably has you in fifth or sixth. Sixth place is 4.5% if you just outlive the smaller stacks vs. 1.1% for busting out now, not to mention that you still have a reasonable shot at first (and the corresponding 25% payout).

Each orbit costs T11100 (soon to be ~T14000) so you can see at least 14 more hands before the small stack pressure sets in.

As a result, I can’t see putting my whole stack in preflop for what will probably be a coin flip at best. The disadvantages of losing the coinflip appear to greatly outweigh the potential benefits of winning.

As a result, my options are fold now or attempt the steal but fold to a big raise. (Note: Since I’m not willing to call a big raise, limping with two aggressive players still to act would just be a donation of 8% of my chips.)

So, stealing has to be successful >62% of the time (with a 3xBB open) to be profitable. Given your read of your opponents, stealing will probably not be successful often enough, so I fold.

I just wish I could see it this clearly when I’m playing! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Ignatius]

With a T300 ante, there should be T11100 in the pot when it get to you. You are better than 6:1 to have the best hand. Let's consider the alternatives (a typical 4BB raise is assumed for the 1st, all-in for the 2nd raise)
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1) raise-call. The worst alternative. You are a dog over the possible range of hand that will play back in this spot. If they call with overcards, you will suffer negative implied odds on the flop.
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2) raise-fold. If your opponents are as aggressive as described you will rarely take it down but will often fold the best hand if played back.
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3) limp-fold. Same as above, only more so.
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4) fold. You cannot fold when you figure to have the best hand more than 85% of the times, as moving in is guaranteed to be profitable.
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5) limp-call. OK, when it's not raised, but puts you in a bad spot when having to play your 55 for 1/3 of your stack. Best option if you are confident to be able to outplay your opponent most of the time.
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6) limp-reraise all-in. If your stack would have been a tad deeper (say 90k), this might in fact be the best option. With only 75k, a raiser might feel committed too often (esp. if he has you covered) after investing 1/3 or more of the effective stack.
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7) raise all-in. IMO the best play. Your worst case EV is about 6/7*11k+1/7*(1/5*83k-4/5*75k) = 3230 K, your typical EV should be more like 1 BB.

[apryllshowers]

At stars you are probably already in the money with very little incentive to ladder move because you will not see a jump in prize money until you hit the final table, and you will not see a significant jump until you hit the top 5. You have an average stack with 2 aggressive players on your left with bigger stacks. Given this dynamic you need some chips to simply survive to the final table. Survival sucks, so how will you get some chips? Generally one of three ways: (i) you find a big hand and it gets paid off [this never never happens to me so don't hold your breath]; (ii) you win more than your share of the preflop dead money via uncalled open raises; or (iii)you make some resteal allin reraises preflop (I hesitate to leave out the preferred pokerstars method of getting your money in with a dominated hand and sucking out, but I will chance it).

Your given scenario calls for an open raise. How much? Any raise will look like a steal, especially from an aggressive player like yourself. With two aggressive players yet to act with bigger stacks a resteal is very likely. If you raise to 24000 you are virtually committed to calling the allin reraise. If you raise to 18000 you can *maybe* lay it down to a reraise, but who the hell wants to do that at this crucial stage. I think the correct play is to move allin. In fact, you can probably do that in this spot with any two cards and win the 10K+ dead money the vast majority of the time. Having 55 gives you a little better shot at winning a showdown if called, but the true strength of your allin raise is the likelihood your opponents will fold preflop. Your 75K stack can hurt the 2 big stacks and can bust the short stack. All 3 of them will need to find a pretty big hand to call. When they fold you have increased your stack by more than 10%. An allin move may get them to fold hands as strong as 99 and AQ. You are only likely to be called by AA KK QQ JJ AK and TT.

Move allin.

[Boris]

I would fold the 55 here. With so much aggressive play on your table you have enough chips to make it to the next payout level by sitting on your ass and doing nothing. If you want to steal why not wait for a larger pair or two face cards? At least that way you won't be totally screwed or slightly ahead if you get called.

[Myrtle]

Greg,

I had just gotten to the table and hadn’t been there long enough to get a “feel” for the play. With the two big-stacked players directly behind you, I think you have 2 choices…..fold or allin. I don’t think the typical 3x BB raise works at all in this case, as you are begging for one of them to come over the top. Your 75K was more than large enough to do significant damage to either of their stacks, therefore, IMO they would have to think hard before calling you down.

You need to have 111K in chips at final table to be just average in chips (adequate, but not great), so you need more chips is you’re going to make a serious move to the money, given the payout structure.

Had you been playing with them long enough to get any kind of a read on what they would likely do if you went allin? With just one big stack behind me, I think I’d move allin. With 2 of them, I’ve got to make a judgment as to whether both of them will lay it down to an allin. Had you mixed it up with them in the recent past? Was there any history that you could use to give you a read on their likely play?

If you think that there is at least a 50% chance that both of the big stacks will respect your allin, then I think you’ve gotta move in.

I saw the end, so I will say no more…..

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Thanks to everyone for your feedback.

I want to point first to Ignatius' reply. I think it is thorough and well written.

Normally I am a big fan of the 3xBB raise. Here, such a raise would be about 25% of my stack. Thus, I usually consider the all-in move to be inferior with this stack size. If 3x had been 1/3 of more of my stack, then I usually would go all-in instead.

However, in this exact situation, with two very aggressive players behind me, I think that raising 3x may be the worst choice of all. Even worse than a 2x raise (which I normally consider to be a significant mistake).

When I raise to 3x, it is very likely, probably more than 50% likely, that one of the two aggressive big stacks will reraise me all-in. And they will do it with other than just big hands. Thus, not only the obvious AA, KK, QQ hands will do it, but also hands like JTo, Q9s, and such. Given the range of hands I think they might reraise with, I'll be potstuck calling with my pair, getting over 5:3 on a call where I'm a small favorite most of the time (albeit a big dog some of the time).

I'd much rather steal the T11100 out there as opposed to playing a T150,000 pot as a 52:48 favorite. ;-)

I did consider folding, but as Ignatius and others have said, I figure to have the best hand right now quite often, and to win the blinds by an all-in pretty often. While these players were aggressive, they were raisers, not callers. So, I expect they will occasionally even lay down a bigger pair, such as 66, 77, 88, maybe even 99. Not necessarily, but at least some of the time. They will also lay down all of the two overcard hands that aren't quite near the top, such as JTs, KQo, ATs, and the like. I'm not quite sure where they would draw the line, but certainly I don't expect them to call with less than a pair, AJs, or KQs. That's not too many hands.

As for the BB who's kinda short-stacked, he's getting a half-decent price on his call, but not enough to call without a real hand also. He might call a bit looser than the big stacks, but not by much. And if he calls with two overcards, I'd rather he chose to fold, but it's not a disaster.

All-in is clearly a top choice. I think the only reasonable alternative is the limp-reraise. The reason I didn't pick this play is because I was afraid that if one of the big stacks did raise, they would raise too big for me to be able to reraise them off their hand. So, if I limp for T6000, they might reraise to T30,000, and my T75,000 all-in wouldn't be enough to get them off their decent but not great hand. However, if I had thought that any raise they made would've been in the T15-20,000 range, I might have picked this play. It's pretty tough to call off well over half your stack to a limp-reraise from a guy who you've never seen make that play, getting less than 2:1 on the call. I'd be practically certain the limp-reraiser had AA or KK at worst.

Result: I raised all-in. Button took a while, and finally raised all-in with AKs. No surprise, given his hand. I'd never fold that hand in that spot. You can give me credit for a real hand, but not AA or KK, and not only pairs either. Flop was TTQ. Not bad, makes me more of a favorite than I was preflop. J on the turn had me drawing thin, however. Oddly enough, the fact that he made a straight rather than two pair actually is good news, as it gives me 4 outs to resuck rather than just 2 outs.

River was a brick and I'm out 14th.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)