Interesting PLO hand on Pokerstars

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I played a lot of online poker this weekend, and had one of my best online runs ever. Here is one of the more interesting hands.

1,2 PLO, playing 8-handed. I'm the $1 small blind, and have more chips than anybody involved this hand. UTG calls, one fold, next player raises to $8, fold, call, fold, I call $7 more with 89TJ and the J9 suited. I consider this to be an absolute premium hand in this game. BB calls, and then UTG limp-reraises the pot to $48. Since he started with $75, this is more than enough to make him pot-committed. And, of course, I give him credit for a big hand, AAxy probably 90% likely. The surprising part is when the player directly behind him re-reraises to $80 all-in. Can we have TWO players with AA? This is the same guy who made the original raise to $8, so you do figure he has a good hand at this point. Next player calls all-in for $54, and it's my turn.

I know the limp-reraiser is going to call $27 more. So, the pot is going to be at least $233, and it will cost me $72 to call. Also, the BB behind me is in for $8, and may or may not call $72 more. He has me covered, and I started the hand with $198. However, I expect him to fold (which he does).

I decide that my hand is more than good enough to call here, that I will win noticeably more than my fair share (i.e., 25%) of the time. In fact, I figured I would win closer to 33% of the time here, without knowing their hands. So, I called, and we saw the cards (later, in the email from Pokerstars hand history).

Me: Ts Jc 9c 8d
Limp-reraiser: Ac Ad 8h 3h
Raise-reraiser: Ks Qc Kd 9h
Other caller: Td 9d Kh Qh

Kind of a bummer really. I was very much hoping both raisers had AA. And, the fourth guy is killing some of my outs, I thought, when I first read the email.

However, things are hard to figure out in this game.

As it turns out, my call was correct. Here is the results from twodimes.net:

Omaha Hi: 376992 enumerated boards
cards win %win EV
Ts Jc 9c 8d 88724 23.53 0.258
Ac Ad 8h 3h 177434 47.07 0.471
Ks Qc Kd 9h 25210 6.69 0.088
Td 9d Kh Qh 52733 13.99 0.183

So, I am getting slightly more than my fair share, plus I had already invested $8 of the $80, so a call was required if I had seen all the cards before making my decision. But, what if that fourth guy hadn't hung around? Wouldn't I do even better? As it turns out, the answer that surprised me is no. Again, from twodimes.net:

Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win EV
Ts Jc 9c 8d 156731 31.35 0.314
Ac Ad 8h 3h 243115 48.62 0.486
Ks Qc Kd 9h 99289 19.86 0.199

Wow, I win less than my fair share, almost 6% less than my fair share. While I wouldn't have been surprised if this guy folding didn't increase my EV all that much, I never would've guessed that his folding would reduce my EV on the hand.

Well, how about if we add in a quality fourth hand, but one that doesn't directly take away from anybody. Let's see:

Omaha Hi: 376992 enumerated boards
cards win %win EV
Ts Jc 9c 8d 110096 29.20 0.293
Ac Ad 8h 3h 92350 24.50 0.245
Ks Qc Kd 9h 68852 18.26 0.184
6c 4d 3d 5h 104798 27.80 0.278

I still can't figure this one out. How does this player increase my equity over the KQT9 player? The only thing I can figure is that the low card player never steals a pot from me by making a higher straight on some boards where I have the non-nut straight. Other than that, I can't imagine.

So, all-in numbers are pretty hard to figure for this game on the fly, that's for sure.

What, you want to know the result? OK, just ask yourself, who made the worst decision(s) on this hand. That's the player who won. Spoiler below.












Board [7s Kc 4h 8s 2c]

So, KKQ9, the guy who had the least equity, and the player I believe made the worst possible decision in this hand, got very lucky and won. I bet it never has and never will occur to him how badly he played this hand.

Raising to $8 was fine. But, when the UTG limper reraises the pot, you are looking at AA most of the time. Since there is not much money left to be won if you call preflop and get lucky, you must fold. I mean, just look how bad his equity was for the money he put in after the first $8. While he may have lost less equity than he did IF he had achieved his goal of getting it heads-up, folding and giving up the $8 was clearly the best decision at the time, and the one that costs him the least in terms of EV as well.

I much prefer my hand, or even the KQT9 double-suited hand, with which to buck AAxy all-in preflop.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Phat Mack]

I much prefer my hand, or even the KQT9 double-suited hand, with which to buck AAxy all-in preflop.

Me, too. I was amazed at the results for KQT9. I guess too many of his outs were held by other players.

I will say that in NLO, where all the money goes in before or on the flop, I do prefer the hands with big pairs. However, in games where there are pleny of chips available for later streets, the big pairs will usually get out played. As far as 6543 goes, I think it can be played profitably, but it can be a long wait for it to come in. What are you looking for with a 6543?

[sam h]

"I still can't figure this one out. How does this player increase my equity over the KQT9 player? The only thing I can figure is that the low card player never steals a pot from me by making a higher straight on some boards where I have the non-nut straight. Other than that, I can't imagine."

Greg, I think you're overlooking the obvious here. It's not just a question of the KQT9 sometimes making a higher straight, it's a question of this player holding many of your outs and chopping with you on several boards. The low card hand, in comparison, hardly affects your ability to beat AA at all.

[ben mo]

Greg, I think the answer is pretty simple. Before even thinking about splits, etc: the 9tkq hand is holding 4 cards you want to come out on the board, and the 3456 is taking 4 cards you DON'T want on the board out of the deck.

Speaking of these type of hands, i won a huge pot in the 1-2 PLO game where three players were all-in and i had 5678 and called. I was up against two players with aces, and one with KKQT. Flop 89T, turn T, river 7.

I don't understand how so many people online overplay their kings.

[Jon Matthews]

I don't understand how so many people online overplay their kings.

I've realised this as well without doing it but exactly how playable are they. Are they, say, playable for the $8 call that Greg was faced with (assuming someone else made the raise) or do you muck straight away like you would KJo in hold'em?

[Ignatius]

> But, what if that fourth guy hadn't hung around?
.
Your simulation is faulty here as it doesn't consider the dead cards (allthough it doesn't affect your equity much), the correct figure is:
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Omaha, 3-handed, pot 3, cost 1, preflop, Kh,Qh,Td,9d dead, 376992 boards
Jc-Ts-9c-8d: 31.18% 4:9 (EV -0.06) 117405 wins 282 splits 259305 losses
Ad-Ac-8h-3h: 57.18% 4:3 (EV +0.72) 215548 wins 0 splits 161444 losses
Ks-Kd-Qc-9h: 11.64% 1:8 (EV -0.65) 43757 wins 282 splits 332953 losses
</pre><hr>
.
&gt; I still can't figure this one out. How does this player increase my equity over the KQT9 player?
.
There are three effects at work here:

- Having 6c-5h-4d-3d not in the deck greatly increases your equity. It doesn't matter whether the player is in the hand or not.
- Having Kh-Qh-Td-9d dead or in the deck does not affect your equity: Having a king dead hurts the KK player just enough to compensate for your lost outs.
- Having the Kh-Qh-Td-9d in the hand does hurt your equity because of potential splits, not b/c of lost outs (see above)
.
Just consider the flollowing figures:
.
1.) actual hand
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Omaha, 4-handed, pot 4, cost 1, preflop, full deck, 376992 boards
Jc-Ts-9c-8d: 25.82% 1:3 (EV +0.03) 88724 wins 17303 splits 270965 losses
Ad-Ac-8h-3h: 47.07% 1:1 (EV +0.88) 177434 wins 0 splits 199558 losses
Ks-Kd-Qc-9h: 8.78% 1:10 (EV -0.65) 25210 wins 15858 splits 335924 losses
Kh-Qh-Td-9d: 18.34% 2:9 (EV -0.27) 52733 wins 32891 splits 291368 losses
</pre><hr>
.
2) actual hand w/ 6c-5h-4d-3d dead
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Omaha, 4-handed, pot 4, cost 1, preflop, 6c,5h,4d,3d dead, 201376 boards
Jc-Ts-9c-8d: 28.31% 2:5 (EV +0.13) 51395 wins 11318 splits 138663 losses
Ad-Ac-8h-3h: 44.51% 4:5 (EV +0.78) 89635 wins 0 splits 111741 losses
Ks-Kd-Qc-9h: 9.67% 1:9 (EV -0.61) 13941 wins 11150 splits 176285 losses
Kh-Qh-Td-9d: 17.50% 1:5 (EV -0.30) 24171 wins 22234 splits 154971 losses
</pre><hr>
.
3.) your hypothetical hand
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Omaha, 4-handed, pot 4, cost 1, preflop, full deck, 376992 boards
Jc-Ts-9c-8d: 29.32% 2:5 (EV +0.17) 110096 wins 896 splits 266000 losses
Ad-Ac-8h-3h: 24.50% 1:3 (EV -0.02) 92350 wins 0 splits 284642 losses
Ks-Kd-Qc-9h: 18.38% 2:9 (EV -0.26) 68852 wins 896 splits 307244 losses
6c-5h-4d-3d: 27.80% 2:5 (EV +0.11) 104798 wins 0 splits 272194 losses
</pre><hr>
.
4.) hypothetical hand w/ Kh-Qh-Td-9d dead
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Omaha, 4-handed, pot 4, cost 1, preflop, Kh,Qh,Td,9d dead, 201376 boards
Jc-Ts-9c-8d: 29.77% 3:7 (EV +0.19) 59834 wins 234 splits 141308 losses
Ad-Ac-8h-3h: 26.12% 1:3 (EV +0.04) 52596 wins 0 splits 148780 losses
Ks-Kd-Qc-9h: 11.15% 1:8 (EV -0.55) 22341 wins 234 splits 178801 losses
6c-5h-4d-3d: 32.96% 1:2 (EV +0.32) 66371 wins 0 splits 135005 losses
</pre><hr>
.
5) 3-handed w/ Kh-Qh-Td-9d and 6c-5h-4d-3d dead
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Omaha, 3-handed, pot 3, cost 1, preflop, Kh,Qh,Td,9d,6c,5h,4d,3d dead, 201376 boards
Jc-Ts-9c-8d: 34.37% 1:2 (EV +0.03) 69089 wins 242 splits 132045 losses
Ad-Ac-8h-3h: 52.50% 1:1 (EV +0.57) 105721 wins 0 splits 95655 losses
Ks-Kd-Qc-9h: 13.13% 1:7 (EV -0.61) 26324 wins 242 splits 174810 losses
</pre><hr>
.
6) 3-handed w/ 6c-5h-4d-3d dead
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Omaha, 3-handed, pot 3, cost 1, preflop, 6c,5h,4d,3d dead, 376992 boards
Jc-Ts-9c-8d: 34.17% 1:2 (EV +0.03) 128320 wins 1006 splits 247666 losses
Ad-Ac-8h-3h: 43.98% 4:5 (EV +0.32) 165806 wins 0 splits 211186 losses
Ks-Kd-Qc-9h: 21.85% 2:7 (EV -0.34) 81860 wins 1006 splits 294126 losses
</pre><hr>

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If it's not too much of your stack preflop (or if you're sure enough you're not against AA), then a majority of KKxy hands are playable. The issue is getting paid off after a K high flop hits the board.

However, when the situation indicates that somebody is likely to hold AAxy, and a lot of the money is going in preflop, KKxy is a very clear fold.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Thanks to all for your input and thoughts, and for helping me see the obvious.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)