How should I play this turn with AKs?

[Unarmed]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) converter

MP2 (t1360)
MP3 (t1480)
Hero (t1470)
Button (t1590)
SB (t1240)
BB (t1360)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t2140)
MP1 (t1360)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, Button calls t60, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (t150) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t120</font>, Button calls t120.

Turn: (t390) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1410</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2100

[jojobinks]

i think the call on the flop let you know he had you beat. your bet on the turn, then, was ill conceived. i'd maybe check/raise all in, or else check/fold it.

i'd also raise preflop more. blinds are small, stacks are deep, 3xbb just won't cut it. i guess i'm assuming this is a small buyin sng

[Voltron87]

What limit is this? At the 33s and 22s I like limping with AK instead of raising. I also find that betting an unimproved AK on the flop is not a good move. You are out of position and once he coldcalls, you shouldn't bet the turn. You have to fold once he reraises you, I think he has more than a Q (no overcard draw) and maybe a set (6 outs).

I wouldn't find myself in this position at BB T20 I limp with AK and don't bet the flop out of position unimproved.

[Voltron87]

Addition: I don't think you have as many outs as you think since I feel he has more than top pair (IE you have no overcard outs) and likely has a set (7 flush outs, not 6 like in my post or 9 normal flush outs)

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Addition: I don't think you have as many outs as you think since I feel he has more than top pair (IE you have no overcard outs) and likely has a set (7 flush outs, not 6 like in my post or 9 normal flush outs)

[/ QUOTE ]

So after the flop call you're worried about a set? Lets look at what hands he can potentially have here:

QJ 12
KQ 12
44 3
66 3
SC diamonds and Ax diamonds (maybe 8 hands here?)

Or some other weirdo hand on a bluff (this is a $10)

AA,KK,AK,AQ repop here PF enough that I'm not worried about him holding any of those hands. Anyway, my point is, worrying about him having a set after the flop call is not really necessary and will have you laying down more winning hands than you should.

He pushes the turn and I eliminate KQ and QJ, (would he really get that aggro with a weakish made hand?) but I still think theres a good chance he's on a diamond draw with some sort of weird made hand...A4/A6 perhaps.

Anyway, I think I agree that the turn bet was pretty fishy. I bet that with a made hand against these guys and that means betting it with a draw is probably not correct.

[Voltron87]

Well I don't really think he has a set, it is very possible, but my point was the if you are counting outs (6 overcards + 9 flush cards= 15) there is a decent chance some of those are counterfeited. I really don't know what he has but I think he is beating you , quite possibly by a long way.

After his coldcall then all in to your bet of 300 I'm pretty sure he isn't bluffing. He might be protecting a weak top pair but I would be surprised if he's bluffing.



Instead of worrying about whether you should call here to really learn something from this hand you should look at the erroneous play that got you here, read my first post.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

Instead of worrying about whether you should call here to really learn something from this hand you should look at the erroneous play that got you here, read my first post.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really want me to limp in the CO with AKs after the table has folded to me? This is a $10 but at any buy-in I think that's terrible advice. The flop bet is debateable (barely IMO) but how can you open limp with AKs and great position?

[Voltron87]

The reason is (this is a debate in my head, I play it both ways) at the lower buy ins (22 and 11) and lower blind levels, it is more profitable to play AK for "knockout value" than to play it for its intrinsic worth as a strong hand.

Knock value is the fact that with a limped AK there is a good probability that you have someone dominated and they have no idea. Someone with KJ, KQ, A10, can flop top pair and say "right I have top pair good kicker I bet strong". You have them dominated, and this hand can become an all in hand which you have dominated. If you raise with AK to form a 150 ish pot, flop and Ace, bet it strong... you usually won't get too much action. Whereas I have had a lot of success limping with AK then taking out someone with A10 or KQ or KJ. And if you think people at 11s, 22s, or even 33s won't call massive overbets while holding KQ on a K35 board, you'll be pleasantly surprised.



The other reason I experimented with this strategy was I had the same problem of betting an unimproved AK into a sizeable pot. At lower level SNGS this is a leak. I decided to try limping with AK, not raising so big, so I did not bluff at the flop so often. In doing this I found that limping with AK has a nice deceptive element and will give you an opportunity to win your opponents whole stack.

[jd2b2006]

I have found at $11, 22, and 33 buy-ins that for every time you limp with a good hand like AKs and might double up, you will also let someone in for cheap that will hit two pair, an OESD, or a flush draw and will call off all their chips.
I agree that you should raise to at least 80 here and either check/fold this flop, or if you do bet the flop and get called, then check/fold the turn if you do not get odds to draw to the flush.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
I have found at $11, 22, and 33 buy-ins that for every time you limp with a good hand like AKs and might double up, you will also let someone in for cheap that will hit two pair, an OESD, or a flush draw and will call off all their chips.
I agree that you should raise to at least 80 here and either check/fold this flop, or if you do bet the flop and get called, then check/fold the turn if you do not get odds to draw to the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

Are you scared of a OESD (straight draw) or flush draw calling your all in while you have TP TK? If you are I can't take your post seriously. I want someone with a draw to call off all their chips.

As for two pair, people will call a raise to 80 with crap anyway at this level, you don't reduce the number of bad beats this way.