Curtains Hand #1 (1C5)- Bubble play

[liucipher]

Out of curiosity, is A9o pretty much the lower bound of hands you're pushing (and/or stop-n-going) here?

[Degen]

whats wrong with folding?

poooooossssssshhhhhhhhh

[curtains]

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Out of curiosity, is A9o pretty much the lower bound of hands you're pushing (and/or stop-n-going) here?

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btw folding preflop here is flat out terrible. Your hand is way too strong against a huge stack button raiser, and you are BY far in last place in chips and have only 5x the BB. If you would even consider folding this for a second, you have a drastic hole.

I wouldn't fold most aces here. You have no room to wait around for a good hand at this point.

the bad thing about a stop n go is - obviously any flop is only going to hit any player roughly 33% of the time, so first villain gets 33% chance of hitting his hand (that's the good news). what this doesn't take into consideration is that villain can already have a pocket pair and if that is the case then villain would be pretty silly to fold to a 600 bet when pot is 900, he would be getting proper odds to call.

In summary, villain will hit his hand 33% of the time and if he has a pocket pair already he ain't foldin'. I think a push is right here. Even though you have little or no FE, it is outweighed by the fact that you need to accumulate chips to avoid busting out on the bubble and this looks like a good spot to double up, time is getting short with this SMALLISH stack.

[fluorescenthippo]

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I wouldn't fold most aces here. You have no room to wait around for a good hand at this point.

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what about hands like KQ and 66?

[curtains]

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what about hands like KQ and 66?

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Folding either of these hands would be terrible.

[schwza]

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The thing is, if he folded the flop it means he missed it and you had the best hand with A high.
If you pushed preflop, he would get an additional 2 cards for 600 chips - this is a good deal for Hero when so short stacked. Let's double up!

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I don't think this is a good deal, you are usually about 70-78% to win with 2 overcards vs your opponents 2 overcards on the flop.

For instance the flop was something like KT2 with 2 diamonds. I moved allin. If he has something Q8 with a diamond, he will win about 27% of the time. Obviously I want him to fold and give me the 1700 chip pot, than gamble for another 600 chips. If he doesnt have a diamond he still wins about 22% of the time, you can basically average it out as 25%, not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs). In any case of course the flop won't always have a flush draw, so even a number like 23-24% is a reasonable one to use...I still don't want to race against this hand for just a few extra chips.

I don't see any math whatsoever to support the claim you made bennies. Know these numbers in advance before trying to squeeze an extra 600 chips out of an already 1700 chip pot. It's especially bad to take this risk on the bubble! From a pure chip EV standpoint its even possible that pushing is correct, but from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

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i agree that bennies's argument is weak. but you miss a couple of points.

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not to mention the small chance that he actually folds a pair or a weaker ace (which would have a lot of split outs)

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with A9 you usually will not face a big risk of a chop from a smaller A. this would be more valid if you had something like A6. getting called there would mean you're a ~88% favorite, which is enough that you want a call.

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from a sit and go standpoint where survival is important, there is no way that I want a call on this flop when he misses.

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that's flat wrong. when he misses and you flop an A (or a 9 if he has two cards below 9) you hate for him to fold.

the biggest question in my mind is how often you'll be able to get all the chips in when you flop a pair.

[KingDan]

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Hero must play here IMO. He is by far the shortest stack and is on the verge of running out of FE. Also, if he folds here there is no guarantee that he will have an opportunity to open-push in the next couple of hands, as the other stacks may well keep raising each other to take advantage of the fact that Hero is short.
I prefer pushing preflop to a stop-and-go, because the only hands Button is likely to fold to a stop-and-go for just 600 more on the flop are hands that Hero is 60/40 or better against.

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Dude if my opponent folds a hand that has a 40 percent chance to beat me on the flop, this is a major accomplishment for me, and I mean MAJOR, in a game where elimiantion is such a disaster.

In any case I did stop+go, missed the flop completely, and was successful, as my opponent folded. Probably the difference between the two plays is pretty slim, but I feel that stop+going was correct in this case, as I feel they would have almost surely called preflop with such a stack for only about 600 more.

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Do you stop and go most hands you play in this situation? I assume you push your big pairs as he is committed to calling and you don't want him to fold the flop.

What about AK/AQ? I hate the stop and go with these hands, because a large portion of the time he folds, you will want him to call (flop a or k)

[curtains]

Of course I want a call when he misses and I hit, but I was saying that OVERALL on all the flops where he misses, I probably don't want a call. Meaning that if I knew for sure that by calling preflop I would get him to fold every flop he missed, I would take this deal. Of course when I hit an ace, I can also consider checking as well, in which case my opp will bet a large % of the time.

Note that this is in reply to schwaza, I forgot to quote.