(109) more AQ bubble fun with raptor

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I don't see why people are saying fold.

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you're missing hte point. you're fairly likely to lose, getting nothing, whereas folding makes you fairly likely to not lose, and get something.

c

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I disagree that we are fairly likely to lose in this point. If we assume that everyone involved is a competant player, what are each villian's ranges?
I think shortie is pushing top 50% (hes going to be practically all in on the next hand, so if he has a better than average hand should put his chips in now, he won't push with less than this because he knows he has 0 fold equity)
Big Stack knows that the shortie has to push top 50%, and with the blinds in there as likely dead money, I think he will probably push around top 30%.
I'm not an an expert at ITM, and have don't know how to calculate an accurate win % vs these ranges, but my instict tells me this a call, but its very close. I would be interested in seeing what ICM says using those ranges, if a knowledgable person wants to test it out.

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I'd say this is a fold and the other is a call, but I'm not so sure since that's what I Play G00t said.

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I give the g00t advice!

[bigt439]

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I don't see why people are saying fold.

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you're missing hte point. you're fairly likely to lose, getting nothing, whereas folding makes you fairly likely to not lose, and get something.

c

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I don't think you're very likely to lose and get nothing. Your hand and the big stack's range probably have the shortie's range in pretty bad shape. And even if the shortie takes you out you can still beat the biggie to be in fine shape.

I understand the argument for folding, I just don't think you lose to both of them very often. I call, but I'm not 100% sure.

[bawcerelli]

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I'd say this is a fold and the other is a call, but I'm not so sure since that's what I Play G00t said.

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nh sir

[microbet]

I dunno, thing is Raptor knows what he's doing which means you can very often just reply to his posts that it's so close it doesn't matter, or maybe just that reads would make too much difference.

p.s. Agreeing with G00t has shattered my confidence. I'm doomed.

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I don't see why people are saying fold.

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you're missing hte point. you're fairly likely to lose, getting nothing, whereas folding makes you fairly likely to not lose, and get something.

c

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In order for us to get nothing here, shorty has to win and big stack has to beat us. How frequently does that happen? It's much less than 1/6, IMHO.

So Hero has to lose to both villains to bust out here. I think he's probably between 60-40 and 50-50 vs each individually (big stack can call any two profitbaly $EV-wise here if he assumes villain will fold). So Hero will lose here something like 16-25% of the time.

Pre-post, Hero has about 27% equity, so when he loses here he's burning 4.3-6.8% equity in the prize pool on that side of the ledger by calling. If we assume he always beats them both the rest of the time, his total equity increases to 38.1% a change of +11.1%. This happens 75-84% of the time under our assumption, so the net gain on this side of the ledger is 8.3-9.3%.

That looks like a call, but we're ignoring the significant cases where shorty triples up and hero beats big stack, as well as the cases where both hero and shorty go out. I'm really not sure how to assign percentages to those. I'd guess Hero actually beats them both closer to 40% of the time for a an EV gain of 4.4% which is no better than break-even with the times he loses to both, and since in both cases where the result is intermediate Hero is giving up equity, I think this is probably a fold. I'd love to see a more definitive math answer from someone with more experience, though.

In the heat of it, I'm folding this without much thought. I'd probably only call with a PP, preferably a big one, though I might go down to say JJ/TT/99.

[raptor517]

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Yes easy fold but was was the OUTCOME?

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i called here for various reasons. utg could have anything. edawwg is relatively solid from what i have seen, so he coulud be pushing a gigantic range trying to get it heads up even with 23 so he can keep the bubble going. thats what i would do in his spot.

anyways, i only have to beat one of them to stay alive or at least get third, so i threw my chips in there. results.. utg had KJ, and sb big stack had 33. not exactly a great situation, but 33 held up and i took third. im gonna go post on the other one now.. holla

[Irieguy]

I would never fold here. Ever.

But the poll says I suck.

Irieguy

[SumZero]

I like the top 50%, top 30% ranges. Using those:

So our CEV if big stack has top 30%, shorty has top 50% and we have AQo is $2694, while if we fold we have 1810 since we lost the BB. We are winning outright 42% of the time. Further, more than half the time we lose, so does the short stack. The short stack only wins 28.2% of the time. The big stack wins 29.8% of the time. More than half the 28.2% the short stack wins we beat the big stack.

So that is: 42% of the time we end up with 4900, big stack has 2410, and other has 2690. This is worth $380.59

And: 29.8% of the time the big stack wins outright. We take 3rd. That is worth $200.

And: 18.4% of the time the short stack wins main pot but we win side. big stack has 2410, other has 2690, short has 1440, we have 3460. That is worth $307.49.

And: 9.8% of the time short stack wins main and big stack wins side pot. That is worth $0.

So our total $EV of call is .42*380.59+.298*200+.184*307.49 which is $276.03.

Contrast if we fold:

55.5% of the time: the big stack wins and has 5500, 1810, 2690. That is worth $283.08.

44.5% of the time: the short stack wins and then its 4240, 1810, 1360, 2690. That is worth $215.08.

So the total $EV of fold is .555*238.08+.445*215.08 which is $227.85.

So this is clearly a call, and it isn't close.

So I'm with Raptor and Irieguy and the (ICM bubble enlightened?) minority on both AQo bubble hands.