Blind Steal and flop bluff late in 11+r

[Falker11]

Pokerstars 11+r 25k guarenteed about 28 players left average stack is about 200k


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button (t205991)
SB (t53834)
BB (t259275)
UTG (t164284)
MP1 (t220352)
Hero (t196644)
CO (t412229)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds</font>, Hero raises to t36000</font>, 3 folds</font>, BB calls t24000.

Flop: (t63600) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)</font>
BB bets t30000</font>,Hero raises to t160044 (all in)</font>.



I have not been stealing very often and have only shown down solid hands. The CO and button were both playing very tight, I had not seen them call or raise an open bet in about a 1/2 hour which is why I decided to steal in this position.

I stole once before on this players big blind maybe 45 mins or so before this and he called me and check folded to my 1/2 pot bet on the flop. I have this player pegged as a fish. He steals way to often with bad hands and I beleive he is incapable of second or third level thinking during a hand. It is for this reason I feel when he calls me preflop he will check raise or check call me if he hits.

What do you think of this play, good or recklass?

-Falker

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I beleive he is incapable of second or third level thinking during a hand. It is for this reason I feel when he calls me preflop he will check raise or check call me if he hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, if you actually have some reason to believe this is true, sure, of course you should push.

i think even without the read it's an ok play because villain will have a hard time calling you given the A on the flop and because an A would usually push there to prevent free cards. this works especially well if villain is paying enough attention to recognize you're tight. it's much worse if he might call the push with Qx.

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
I stole once before on this players big blind maybe 45 mins or so before this and he called me and check folded to my 1/2 pot bet on the flop. I have this player pegged as a fish. He steals way to often with bad hands and I beleive he is incapable of second or third level thinking during a hand. It is for this reason I feel when he calls me preflop he will check raise or check call me if he hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain to my how your read tells you he won't lead the flop if he hits?