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#1
11-20-2005, 09:24 PM
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Re: errrrrrr?
[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget KK and worse but I agree that those are v unlikely. This is the key pt when justifying this type of call. [/ QUOTE ] Yea still not saying this call was correct... really good chance it wasn't. I feel like a genius if he shows AJo tho [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#2
11-21-2005, 04:23 AM
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Re: errrrrrr?
I've read the thread so I know the results. But here's a bit of analysis. I'm doing top of the head math as one would at the table rather than seriously calculating this out.
First, let me turn it around a bit. Given his trips on the turn, I think he made a mistake in the amount of his raise on the turn. Either you have a high pair or you're on a flush draw, one of two possible out there. So he knows for certain he's ahead right now and if you have a high pair you're coming along for the ride no matter how high he raises. But if you're drawing his raise just priced you in to your draw, getting what? 3-1 on your money for the call? So I think the amount of his turn raise is too low. But you probably don't care about that. So let's talk about the river. To call his bet he needs to have whiffed his hand ~35% of the time. That's about the price we're talking about, right? 1700 to win 4700. What are the chances? You raised PF, fired away on the flop, fired again on the turn and called his raise! To me that says "I have something and you're not chasing me away that easily." If I were your opponent I would not be firing in the last of my stack in this situation on a total bluff 35% of the time. Here's my point: Maybe you had a good understanding of how this opponent worked and he would make that play but I think a bluff here has to be -ev and therefore I think a call here hoping your opponent is on a total bluff must also be -ev.
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#3
11-21-2005, 04:27 AM
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Re: errrrrrr?
[ QUOTE ]
but I think a bluff here has to be -ev and therefore I think a call here hoping your opponent is on a total bluff must also be -ev. [/ QUOTE ] This part of your reasoning is way off. Doesnt mean your wrong... He played bad, that was a main part of this- i could call a good player w/ AK here b/c they could be bluffing w/ 78/9T etc.
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