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#1
12-02-2005, 01:02 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image. [/ QUOTE ] Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL! - Jim [/ QUOTE ] Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop. Rob [/ QUOTE ] She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river. 
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#2
12-02-2005, 12:49 PM
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Re: AA
Its not a value bet in the traditional sense. He is not planning on being ahead 55% of the time that he is called. Its just that he is more of an underdog when checks and calls than when he bets and is called.
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#3
12-02-2005, 01:00 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
Its not a value bet in the traditional sense. He is not planning on being ahead 55% of the time that he is called. Its just that he is more of an underdog when checks and calls than when he bets and is called. [/ QUOTE ] Being more of an underdog doesn't matter in this case given the pot size. If she never bets AA it's a check-fold. But if she bets AA 50% of the time it's a check-call (earns .75BB if we're wondering if she has AA or KK), which is better than a bet, which loses 1BB the vast majority of the time here. If she bets AA 40% of the time she has AA (even accounting for only one combo of AA) we break even on our 1BB investment. In order for our river bet to be breakeven she will have to have JJ or AK some portion of the time, given how often we will be bet-folding or bet-chopping. Given how this hand has played out, especially preflop and on the flop, that doesn't seem nearly likely enough for a bet to have more EV than a check-call. IMO the decision is somewhere between check-calling and check-folding, but betting seems particularly spewy. Rob
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#5
12-02-2005, 02:08 PM
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Re: AA
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I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about. [/ QUOTE ] Bet/folding the river for one more bet in a huge pot? At a 40/80 game where people will take notice. Any plan that has us putting in all that action and not seeing a showdown is bound to raise some eyebrows. -DeathDonkey
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#6
12-02-2005, 05:53 PM
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Re: AA
I've thought about this for a while and I really don't agree with your guy's reads. I don't think she has AQ here often enough for a bet to show any profit, but if you guys do, bet-fold away.
Rob
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#8
12-02-2005, 11:51 PM
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Re: AA
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Given that there's $1,320 in the pot, that she thinks she's playing against a crazy person, and that the others would see a fold in an ubermegapot for one more bet on the river, I'd have called. [/ QUOTE ] Andy, certainly you must have a number of players you see again and again where you know they aren't raising the river without a hand that beats Aces, regardless of how crazy/dumb/aggressive their opponent is.
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#9
12-05-2005, 02:32 PM
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Re: AA
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Andy, certainly you must have a number of players you see again and again where you know they aren't raising the river without a hand that beats Aces, regardless of how crazy/dumb/aggressive their opponent is. [/ QUOTE ] You don't have aces, sir, you have two pair, using a pocket overpair, with a K kicker. Terrible river play. TSP
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#10
12-03-2005, 01:18 PM
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Re: AA
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HU for 11.25 BBs. Turn is the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet, she calls. River is the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I check, she bets, I fold. [/ QUOTE ] FYP [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Based on your description, there is no way she has JJ or AK (EDIT: or AQ).
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