Facing a river bet after checking the turn with a marginal hand...

[blackaces13]

PokerRoom 2/4 (10 handed).

MP1 is new to the table and posted a BB.

PREFLOP: Hero is on the button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP1 checks, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

FLOP: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players, 5 SBs)
4 checks, <font color="red"> Hero bets </font>, 2 folds, MP1 (poster) calls, MP2 folds.

TURN: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 3.5 BBs)
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

RIVER: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 3.5 BBs)
<font color="red"> MP1 bets </font> , Hero...?

I think every street except maybe the flop are questionable. I'm most interested with the river decision but all comments are welcome.

[ghostwriter]

I would raise preflop. Folding the river sucks but you can only beat a bluff.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding the river sucks but you can only beat a bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

Right. The problem is that after I check the turn behind that's exactly what I'm inviting him to do. Is an unknown bluffing 20% of the time here?

[ellipse_87]

I think we need to raise pf to keep it short-handed.

If he's loose enough to post in MP1, then there are a lot of losing hands he's calling the turn with, I think we can value bet the turn.

The river is almost game theory territory since we don't know his aggression. No raise on the flop, no donk bet by this donk on the turn decrease the likelihood of a K, Q or [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s. I think a 4, pocket pairs, and air are betting this enough that we're good 1/4 of the time, and we're an underdog when he calls our raise, so I call this river.

Raise preflop
Bet the turn
fold the river

[Chuckles1248]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding the river sucks but you can only beat a bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

Right. The problem is that after I check the turn behind that's exactly what I'm inviting him to do. Is an unknown bluffing 20% of the time here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'm betting the turn here for exactly this reason. If he check-raises, I'm confident he has spades or a K, and folding is easy, if he calls and then donk-bets the river when it pairs the 5, it's also easier to find a fold. I think there's a decent chance your hand is good here, so betting the turn lets you get it to showdown without having to make a read-based decision on an unknown.

Also, I'm raising preflop pretty much every time, on the button against a poster checking and a single limp.