turn call with 11-out draw... yes/no/maybe?

[weaselboy]

Trying to figure out whether the turn call was justified. $12 to take a shot at $31, that's 2.5:1 odds, right? I've got 11 "nut" outs, meaning if I hit I'm not folding no matter what. That's slightly less than 3:1, so the raw odds are close... do the implied odds make this call correct on the turn? My gut feeling is yes, because if I hit I'm reasonably sure I can get at least another few bucks out of the villian. Flame away boys...


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero ($55.95)
MP1 ($72.1)
MP2 ($10)
MP3 ($48)
CO ($86.54)
Button ($83)
SB ($79.18)
BB ($19.3)
UTG (Villian)/ ($53.3)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $0.5. MP3 posts a blind of $0.5. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG :#A500AF(Villian)/ calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Villian checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $2</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Villian calls $2, Hero calls $2, MP2 folds.

Turn: ($9.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Villian checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, MP3 calls $3, <font color="#CC3333">Villian raises to $15</font>, Hero calls $12, MP3 folds.

River: ($42.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villian bets $20</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $62.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Villian doesn't show.
Outcome: Villian wins $62.50. </font>

[steaknshake925]

what was your reason for betting the turn?

given the way it went, yes calling the checkraise is okay.

[edge]

Yeah, call for sure. He's being dumb with a set. Watch out if you hit a board-pairing flush "out" though. I probably don't bet the turn, but if you did get away with it, seeing the river for only $3 would be pretty cool.

[Yeknom58]

If you're going to bet, bet more like 6, if not just check. And I would call the raise.

[xorbie]

I don't like the turn at all. I'm assuming you want MP not to raise it here, but I don't really understand why. He made asmall-ish bet on the last round, and letting him bet gives you the best relative position (i.e. you can see what villain does first without acting yourself, and not letting him see what you do).

I like check/call the turn and hope villain comes along (you couldn't know he was going to check/raise).

Besides that, the turn call is marginal. Your [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] outs are not very well concealed, and some of them pair the board, putting you in an ugly position if he comes out betting. The only real good outs you have are the three jacks, as I'm not sure how well you'll get payed off on a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river, and you need to make a decent amount to justify your turn call.

[weaselboy]

I bet the turn looking for the following responses (in order of preference):
1) two calls
2) two folds
3) one fold, one call
4) one fold, one small raise

obviously I got what I wasn't looking for, which was a medium-size raise that put me right about the even EV line. If someone pushes I can't call, but a smaller raise clearly gives me odds.

[FlipPoker]

I don't think you have 11 clean outs. Only K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] gives you the nut flush. Any other diamond gives you the second nut flush. K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] also pairs the board for a possible full house. So if you leave out the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you only have the three remaining jacks for nut outs. You should've checked the turn for the free card.

[zaxx19]

[ QUOTE ]
You should've checked the turn for the free card.



[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly. I cant really think of any rational reason to bet weakly at this pot.
[ QUOTE ]
I bet the turn looking for the following responses (in order of preference):
1) two calls
2) two folds
3) one fold, one call
4) one fold, one small raise



[/ QUOTE ]
The logic you provide for so doing reveals perhaps you have borrowed FAR too heavily from a limit holdem perspective and the 2+2 SSNLH book in particular.

My advice is to either play more limit or try in some way to relearn how to play the game in a manner more consistent with the way SSNLH plays out.