anyone fold this?

[phrosty]

With small stack in the BB, button is probably just trying to pick up the blinds but with stacks so even and mine barely covering him, I strongly considered folding. Seat 1 was awful, accumulating his stack through a series of lucky flops after making terrible calls and short stack hadn't shown any backbone to this point so I'm thinking maybe I should have folded figuring I can pick on the weakies. Anyone else like folding this?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t2785)
Button (t2060)
Hero (t2210)
BB (t945)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls [t2060] , Hero calls [t2210] t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t600) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t600) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t600) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t600

[tigerite]

Why don't you just ICM it? To me I think this is a marginal fold, then push just a huge range the next hand assuming the new UTG folds.

It's read dependent for what it's worth. He needs to be pushing more than top 20% to call this, and you need to be a 62.3% favourite when the cards are turned up.

Err.. how did you calculate those exact numbers?

[tigerite]

Call/win 0.4106 EV
Call/lose 0.0544 EV
Fold 0.2744 EV
Edge 0.2%

[ X * 0.4106 ] + [ (1 - X) * 0.0544 ] = 0.2744 + 0.002

0.0544 + (0.3562 * X) = 0.2764

X = 0.222 / 0.3562 = 0.6232 = 62.3%

From there, you can work out what range using whatever you like, poker stove, or whatever, to see what you are a 62.3% favourite against.

FWIW however I think the fold EV is higher, because:

a) next hand you will have first in vigorish quite often
b) BB will be more likely to call should you fold, and whatever the outcome of that battle, it'll be good for you

Not to mention that you're not 62% against stuff like QJ, QT and hands like that.. the 20% range is probably the "sweet spot" because most of the early hands that are in the K-S chart SNGPT uses are Ax and Kx, and these nicely tie in with being a 75% favourite for you.. I suspect if you put it up to 40% then it would again become -$EV even without the above taken into account (which ICM obviously cannot)