giants BSP this week?

[SunOfBeach]

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Those picks highlighted in green (at the end of the week, this was obviously a snapshot taken the day I posted it) are about 45% winners for the year, and that trend has been pretty solid at approx 45% for the last five years (which is the same as the length of time the site in question has been operating).


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i have two questions:

1. are those picks in green those which have one side being preferred by 60%+ of the public?

2. is there any evidence that the trend is more/less effective when the public is more overwhelmingly (say 70%+ or more) in favor of one side?

[jedinite]

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1. are those picks in green those which have one side being preferred by 60%+ of the public?

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From the FAQ linked on said page:
The Wagerline "All Players" consensus shows the number of picks in the cash contests made by all players. If the percentage of picks exceeds 59%, the game is highlighted in green.

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2. is there any evidence that the trend is more/less effective when the public is more overwhelmingly (say 70%+ or more) in favor of one side?

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all the records are there, it would be a non-trivial exercise to pull these stats.

It's also worth saying that the consensus picks are having their best ATS year ever this year (currently right at 50%).


These numbers are not a meaningful "fade simply because they're green" indicator. what's more useful, IMO, is as an indicator when the public opinion is dramatically one-sided and yet there's been little to no movement in the public line....