May i fold? HIGH CARD

POKhER · #1 09-18-2005, 08:17 AM

CO is newish, I've blind stolen and hes folded to some aggression twice when i bet my OC's into him.. Doesnt play loads of hands though.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 folds.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

CO Hesitates for hours...
Im getting like 7.75:1 to call my OC's - Maybe i should discount and fold? I never discount, wonder if it balances out over time?

River: (8.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds.

Then again, but maybe hes eating or something.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

_Kevin_ · #2 09-18-2005, 08:21 AM

I let this go on the turn. Wait for a better spot to get your money in the pot.

thesharpie · #3 09-18-2005, 09:20 AM

I'd say you're behind, you have ~6 outs if he has an overpair, and 3 outs if he has you reverse dominated, and 0 outs if he has something like a set. I'll give you ~4 outs and say fold the turn.

POKhER · #4 09-18-2005, 09:41 AM

No way am i putting this villan on:
Set/Straight(set = Turn checkraise? Straight = seeing monsters).

My only concern is him holding Ax(Pairing X leaving me 3outs and -EV call).

HOWEVER his flop raise could easily be Suited connectors hitting top/middle pair. When i dont 3bet he puts me on OC's and bets the turn.

Then my turn call is fine if my 6outs are clean.

The major query is if he holds Ax and has paired his X
Turn fold is probably wise then, this is my main query.

Trouble is, when an ace/queen fall am i making enough money to make this +EV? Even if i check raise i lose two when dominated, make 1 - 2 when ahead, and have him check through when scared.

After thinking about it, it seems the turn fold is best and i played this wrong.

Thanks guys.

teajay · #5 09-18-2005, 10:56 AM

I think that if he folded to some aggression earlier and is now showing it, you have a safe fold on the turn. It's not overly draw heavy and since he bet the turn instead of taking the free card he must have something he likes.

By the way, you need to discount your outs. It's a huge difference. You have 2.75-3 outs here instead of the 6 that you assume. I say 2.75 because of the small chance of reverse domination.

Edit: Maybe too conservative on the out counting?

Eeegah · #6 09-18-2005, 03:44 PM

So you're saying the villain raises you on the flop with a almost completely drawless board, bets the turn and river, and you're not even giving him credit for A high? Okay.

NateDog · #7 09-18-2005, 04:53 PM

If he's an astute hand reader, he knows he's beating you, and is value betting here. Why would you think of calling the turn?

TomBrooks · #8 09-18-2005, 05:10 PM

If all your outs were clean you could call this. There is a decent chance CO made a set or two pair or a straight though, and a pair with an ace is possible too, so I'd discount your outs by at least half and therefore a turn fold looks good.

SoftcoreRevolt · #9 09-18-2005, 06:12 PM

Fold the turn. Not discounting overs is insane, forget reverse domination, have you never ever ever run into a set or two pair before?

POKhER · #10 09-18-2005, 06:34 PM

So everyone calls the flop raise and folds turn?
What if an ACE fell ?

bet out? Check raise? call down a raise or reraise?