15/30 - To 3-bet or not to 3-bet?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess a river cr/fold to 3-bet has a greater EV than bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bad line. He's betting everything and raising only hands that beat you. Check call is better than bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm.. could you explain your thinking here? I had relatively little reads on the villain at the time, other than the PT stats. If the villain was willing to cap the turn without the nuts, might he be willing to 3-bet the river without them as well? I understand that 0.8 AF is pretty low, but not so much for a 45 VPIP. There's also the occassional "passive" donk, who will raise the entire way donk with "monsters" (ie. set+), regardless of the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well folding to a 3-bet part only applies if Villian is predictable and known. I think calling the 3-bet is a must in this scenerio as other posters pointed out.

First the hand reading. He raises preflop. As far as suited aces that rules out some of the weaker ones. Lots of pairs/big aces.

On the flop Villian caps the flop. Some players would cap the flop with a draw but not all. Some players would cap the flop with a set, but some would wait till the turn to raise on a BB street. So flop action makes me lean just a little towards a set/two pair/made hand. Though some people push draws, not near as many cap a draw HU. (3-way sure).

On the turn it goes 4 bets quick. Everyone will go 4 bets with the flush. Only some will go 4 bets with a set. KK or 88 are both consistent with Villians play. AA with Ac also could still be in the range. I do think the turn leans the read toward a flush.

To figure out the river decision, I count hands.

We are ahead of

KK, 6 ways
88, 6 ways
AA, 12 ways?
Total 24 ways.

We are behind AcJc and AcQc. I'm discounting all the other flushes significantly because of the preflop raise.

Even if we discount the sets/AA hands 50% (which I think is overdoing it) we are still ahead of 12 and behind only 2. (6-1 in our favor).

So if you agree so far, you are trying to get more bets in the pots because you have dominant equity. What happens if you lead. KK,88,AA will call very often. Only once in a while will they raise. So you basically win close to 1 bet. The nut flush will raise, costing you 2 bets.

What happens when you check raise? KK,88 will bet all the time. AA will bet maybe half the time. So a cr nets you on average 1.5 BB when ahead. You lose 3 BB when behind. But the ratio of hands is favorable enough that you still come out ahead.

The brilliant part is when you can fold to a 3-bet. Then, when you are ahead you win 2 and when you are behind you lose 2. Compare this to bet/calling which nets you 1 when ahead and loses 2 when behind.

Krishan

[Dazarath]

Ok, great analysis. I see the value to a CR. Would AA without the Ac 4-bet the turn? I tend to lean towards bet/call lines more than check/raise lines because there's also the possibility that an opponent will check behind all hands I beat and bet/3-bet the hands that beat me. A bet/call line guarantees that one bet goes in against hands where the villain knows he's beat, but won't lay down (ie. set, two pair, AA, etc).

After reading the responses, I'm thinking that the decision to bet/call or check/raise is read dependant, with bet/call being better as a standard line vs an unknown.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, great analysis. I see the value to a CR. Would AA without the Ac 4-bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I should cut the combinations of aces down so there are only combos with the Ac.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

After reading the responses, I'm thinking that the decision to bet/call or check/raise is read dependant, with bet/call being better as a standard line vs an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

bet/call is aweful. If you don't like a check raise you really should be check calling. How many people cap the turn for a free showdown? If you want a bet to go in on the river, check.

Krishan

[golferbrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

After reading the responses, I'm thinking that the decision to bet/call or check/raise is read dependant, with bet/call being better as a standard line vs an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

bet/call is aweful. If you don't like a check raise you really should be check calling. How many people cap the turn for a free showdown? If you want a bet to go in on the river, check.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Online i feel that the cap turn for a free showdown is a play I see quite often. Also, I believe that a bet call is good b/c often on the end an online opponent can easily raise here with a worse hand. However, you are almost never being 3 bet by a worse hand. Therefore a bet call line is better, b/c often I feel 2 bets will go in when you still have the best of it.

[Dazarath]

What about hand 1? After I 3-bet the turn and villain caps, do I fold the river unimproved?

[golferbrent]

Unfortunately, the pot is 12.5 BB now and I think you have to call. I don't think you are a 13-1 dog on the river, so unfortunately you need to call down and hope he shows you Aces up. Folding a winner here could be catastrophic both financially as well as, and more importantly emotionally.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'd prob checkraise the flop on hand two but bet-three bet is cool also. The rest is whatever. You're beat by one hand, what's the problem? Bet the river. If he raises, call bc 4 bets went in the previous street. If he is major aggro, go ahead and reraise but getting 4-bet will both suck and blow.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd guess a river cr/fold to 3-bet has a greater EV than bet/call.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

You would fold to a river 3-bet getting something like 20:1?! That is insane! Villain could easily have top set and be fooled into thinking he has the nuts.

[elindauer]

Hand 1: I like a call here. Villain is almost certainly raising for value here and you can't make him fold a bare club anyways. You might consider raising the river if it's a non-club blank in an effort to extract value from a turned 2-pair, but I think calling down UI in this game is the most profitable line. There are just so many ways he can have clubs...

Hand 2: Definitely check. Whether to check-call or check-raise is player dependent, but against most players, and certainly this passive guy, check-call is the best line. Bet/call is bad, since you'll get the first bet in anyways by checking and you can't possibly think you are making money on that 2nd bet, right?


good luck.
eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy 3-bet on the turn in hand one. He could easily have something like AxK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

To put him on this hand, you have to believe that the SB, who raises 12% of his hands, has decided to just complete preflop w/ AK. No, he does not have AxK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

-Eric