Value bet?

[Rooger]

I'm having a bit trouble when to value bet, and when not to. Would you bet this river? Do you think villain will call with anything I have beat? Insta-check?
What do you think villain is holding?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($251.10)
Hero ($100)
SB ($51.55)
BB ($58.95)
UTG ($159.15)
MP ($87.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, MP calls $7.

Turn: ($25.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $18</font>, MP calls $18.

River: ($61.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, Hero?

[4_2_it]

Hard to put villain on a straight or flush with the make-up of the board. Looks like villain has two-pair (AK,AQ or KQ). I make a half pot value bet here unless I have a note that villain relentlessly chases down straights and flushes.

[GrunchCan]

I dunno. I'm thinking the opponent either has a small pair or somethiing that connects with the eventual board. It might be just an ace. But I wouldn't want to get checkraised when I'm holding a hand that gradually became rather marginal. I'll check behind here, unless I know this opponent.

[Rooger]

I have no read on villain - 5th hand at the table.
Is it likely he'll pay off a ½ pot bet with two pair, when the board is so connected?

[GrunchCan]

Yes, I think two-pair will pay off a half pot bet, or even a bit more, very often here.

But I wouldn't put an unknown opponent on two-pair here, unless it's J2 or similar. He would have to be unusually passive preflop &amp; postflop to have any other two-pair. He could be that passive, but since he's unknown and that is a bit outside the mean, that's not what I'd go with.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no read on villain - 5th hand at the table.
Is it likely he'll pay off a ½ pot bet with two pair, when the board is so connected?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you call a half-pot bet with AQ or AK? Without a read I make the bet and fold to a check raise. Hard to imagine raise from anything other than a flush and I don't see how he got there unless he had K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Without a read, I think betting is your best play.

[c_strong]

I agree with 4_2_it: if he's any good, it's hard to figure what he would have that calls your flop bet, doesn't raise the turn and beats you. I find it hard to put him on a flush here, given that it would have been a backdoor draw and two high clubs came out after the flop. K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] maybe but this is very specific. As for straights, if he is the type of player who hangs around on the flop with AT I'd expect him to raise once he hits his ace. Likewise JT for the OESD must be afraid of the flush hitting and will try to win it on the turn. TT isn't going to call the turn with three overs. I reckon he's got one pair with the King, Queen or Ace often enough to value bet.

[Andrew Fletcher]

Since he posted and then c/c before the flop, I think his hand range is pretty wide. I'd rule out AA KK QQ AK, AQ, since I think he raises PF with any of these.

The other stuff, like JT and two suited cards, is really the scariest possiblities. I check behind. But I'm sort of a wimp.

I always wonder what people play when they've posted or call out of the bb. in 25NL, they have ATC.

I'm checking behind.

This board sucks, I'd just showdown.

[Rooger]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you call a half-pot bet with AQ or AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably not on this board, against an opponent that bet all streets - but then again, I'd bet on one of the streets with two pair, to get my hand defined.