Variance - Advice Please!

[Poker Jon]

Hey All,

Was just looking on some advice on variance from you guys.

First a little history on me:
Started playing poker 2 years ago, and have built up a bank roll from an initial $200, to over 14k now. I am a winning player, but still feel I have loads to learn.

I mainly play multi table tourneys and $200 NL Cash - mainly at Stars.

I recently had a pretty good run on stars and won two tourneys and made a few bucks on the cash tables and added 8k to my roll.

HOWEVER, since the beginning of November, my luck has run out - and so I feel, has my GOOD PLAY. It is a catch 22 for me: I am chasing more draws etc (only when I have the odds) but just not hitting - am constantly getting outdrawn on the river, and making crying calls 'just to check'. I know this is something that I need to plug again, and it will happen.

Something I can not control however, is the constant preflop all ins I am losing. AK v AQ AA v QQ etc etc. This is just something that will relieve itself over time - I KNOW THAT!

My point in the post though, is that, each and every one of us goes through this at MANY stages in their poker playing career.

How do you all deal with it?

I am finding it hard at the moment constantly getting sucked out, as well as playing at about 70% of my game (this is because of my frustration).

Any recommendations to get me over this bad spot (aside from asking to come and play at my table [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]).

Cheers,

Jon

[Poker Jon]

One thing that seems to have helped me in my tourney so far, is when all in, switch your browser to 2+2. I have won 2 65:35's on the trot!

I would say have a couple of weeks off, and i mean seriously don't play at all. Read, or reread some books on poker, then go back to the game with a more positive view, it sounds like your not in the best frame of mind to play at the moment, which aint good.

[winky51]

Takes only a little to shift winning to losing. Now add on tilt, players that now feel "lucky" playing unpredictable and this equals disaster. Read this article I wrote for myself and others. Maybe it will help.
http://www.texasholdempoker-stats.co..._variance.html

TAKE A BREAK! When I get like this I won't play at all for at least five days, but I won't go back until I'm feeling really confident and even-headed.

[whiskeytown]

I've been taking good and bad beats better lately Jon, after watching the WSOP.

I mean, you watch Televised poker - even the best players in the world lose to three outers to people that are too stupid to know they shouldn't be there - I became more accepting of my river beats, but also more determined to win pots BEFORE the river got there. If it's happening in a 10K game, it's GONNA happen here.

I'm rededicating myself too after a downswing - set a goal and GL.

And definately take a break - you know what I really like? - go a couple days without, then read "Positively 5th Street" by Jim Mcmanus - it reinspires you to tournament poker....really...it's great tourney reading without the stress of trying to learn, and that brings back a love of the game.

GL

RB

I was in your spot about 2 months ago, felt like I was 'cursed' and unlucky and couldnt win a flip. Logically I knew it was all in my head but that didnt help.

So I made an excel sheet and started to keep track of my expected winning % when I went allin and saw a showdown. It takes some work but doing this has really helped me because I can corroborate what I'm feeling with actual numbers and this makes me feel alot better.

For example I can see if I'm winning more or less than I should be. For example right now in situations where I should win 75% of the time I'm winning only 60% of the time, but I know that will change and now every time I lose one of those instead of focusing on the loss I can focus on the coming heater I'm going to have as the math gets back to even. This has helped me do away with the feelings of being 'unlucky' as I can plainly see that the math does work out in the long run.

And I also get to celebrate when I see I'm on a heater - like a couple of weeks ago that I won 9 coinflips in a row - or right now that I'm running at %50 in situations where I should be winning only 25% of the time. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]