Bad bluff?

Rooger · #1 11-25-2005, 11:32 AM

Villain is TA - around 15/4/4 the hands I have on him.
I have seen him raise with AA & KK, and coldcall a raise with 33 (stacked a fish when he hit set).
Villain probably sees me as TA too - he has seen me raise KK.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($322.05)
Hero ($128.20)
BB ($19.05)
UTG ($62.15)
MP ($11.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $3, Button calls $3, Hero calls $2.50, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($12) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($12) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks, Button bets $6, Hero calls $6, BB folds, MP folds.

River: ($24) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $15

Good move, or spewing?

GrunchCan · #2 11-25-2005, 11:39 AM

I don't like much of this at all. Regarding your question, I don't think you have a llot of fold equity on the river; he'll feel compelled to call most marginal hands.

I don't like the PF cold call at all. You're OOP with a marginal hand. I fold this spot against this opponent every time, unless I'm planning a steal.

On the flop your opponent seems to have missed. He is giving you an opportunity to represent a whiffed flop checkraise. You can capitalize on this by potting the turn, giving him an opportunity to fold. If you're going to run a bluff, the turn is the time to do it. Or even the flop. If you lead the flop for a real bet, the opponent usually folds if he missed. And he usually missed.

4_2_it · #3 11-25-2005, 11:39 AM

If you think a bluff is going to take it down, then make it full pot. You look like you are trying to throw out a blocking bet, which villain will call with any decent holding.

If you wanted to steal the pot, a full pot c/r on the turn probably does it. If called you are still drawing to the flush. If re-raised you can lay it down. Most TAGs over-respect a turn check-raise so that is where you should make a move.

JAP · #4 11-25-2005, 11:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you think a bluff is going to take it down, then make it full pot.

[/ QUOTE ] Although this looks like a check fold to me without a good read.

Ojo_Rojo · #5 11-25-2005, 11:53 AM

I agree with the others. A check-raise or lead bluff on the turn is more effective, and comes with "At Least a 7-out Discount" - "Great Value!!".

Ojo_Rojo

#6 11-25-2005, 11:53 AM

The way the post flop play went here, If was the villian im calling that river with 88 or 99 for sure.

I dont think you'll get away with this often enough to make a profit.

Rooger · #7 11-25-2005, 12:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you think a bluff is going to take it down, then make it full pot. You look like you are trying to throw out a blocking bet, which villain will call with any decent holding.

If you wanted to steal the pot, a full pot c/r on the turn probably does it. If called you are still drawing to the flush. If re-raised you can lay it down. Most TAGs over-respect a turn check-raise so that is where you should make a move.

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually CR the turn if I want to take it down, but I thought I'd give it a try on the river instead.
Villain definately doesn't hold a king. Almost 100% it's another broadway, or 22-99. I think I can get him to fold 22-66 or a broadway on a blank river - am I overestimating the succes rate?

GrunchCan · #8 11-25-2005, 12:22 PM

I don't understand how anyone can consider check-raising the turn since the opponent is in position but chose to check the flop, and a complete brick fell on the turn. An attempt to check-raise the turn here will almost certianly fail.

4_2_it · #9 11-25-2005, 12:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand how anyone can consider check-raising the turn since the opponent is in position but chose to check the flop, and a complete brick fell on the turn. An attempt to check-raise the turn here will almost certianly fail.

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn was not a complete brick as it gives hero the nut flush draw. Check-raising the turn makes it look like you got cute with your trip 5's or FH. Also, you still have outs and if a diamond hits the river your flush is concealed.

Perhaps the bets question is this: Assume you have to bluff to win this pot, where do you make your stand?

Ojo_Rojo · #10 11-25-2005, 12:42 PM

Then we are given a free card, which is good.

Ojo_Rojo