A tough AJo hand...how would you play it better?

[AZK]

Looking to see if anyone could play this better.

Greektown 5/5/10, I have about 2000 behind, Villain is tight, not-especially tricky, aggressive and smart he has me covered by a little. If I had to guess, I would say he is the most winning player at greektown for the NL games. He plays everyday, I think he's retired and this is what he does. I never gave him much credit up until about 2 weeks ago, but recently I've developed respect and caution for him. He is a phenomenal hand reader.

Folded to me in middle, I limp in with AJo, a limp or two, and he completes in the SB.

Flop (~$50-70) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He comes out firing for $100, I'm the only caller.

Turn 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet 100, he calls.

River 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He asks me how much I have left, I tell him, he bets 400. I get my money out to call, think for a long time, he says come on kid it's just money. I debate for a few more minutes and call.

Some of my thoughts to get the ball rolling: When he leads out into the whole field for a big overbet I give him credit for two pair or a very strong Ace, for some reason I didn't think this was a set, but more something like AK/AQo, AJ, J8, or A8. His turn check sort of through me off, and I think I gave him credit for AK/AQ so I only bet small to keep him in. When he leads the river for the near pot I am baffled, but still only 20- 40% that this is J8/A8, I feel like he would have check-raised me on the turn with these holdings. I don't know. I was really 50/50 on whether or not I was beat, so I opted for the call. I think it was because I had difficulty putting him on a hand that it led me to call...totally wrong reasoning? Thoughts?

[FeelGoodAboutHood]

I think you have to call the river. I agree that there is a decent chance he's full, but equally as good a chance that he has AK or AQ, since I'm assuming he wouldn't be raising with those out of the SB.

His check and call on the turn is really what makes me think a call on the river is good here. When he sees you only bet $100, he could easily have interpreted that as weak Ace or a flush draw, which led to him contemplating putting you all-in on the river. When he backs off that claim and bets the pot, it makes me think he realizes there's a small chance he's either behind or splitting, and obviously he wouldn't be thinking that if he was full.

I'm not saying you're ahead or that it isn't a value bet, but in my opinion it's a possible line of thinking that tips the scales in favor of a call.

While he may be a very good hand reader, I'd be very surprised if he read you for top two, based on your small turn bet. If he does, than may your respect for him continue to grow.

[Mad Genius1]

I think you need to bet more on the turn. If he has AK/AQ he would call more than a $100 on the turn, wouldn't you think? And it probably prevents you from being in this tough situation on the river.

As it is I would call the river. $400 is almost pot and I think he would make a smaller value bet with a boat. I think his most likely hand is a missed big draw such as T9s or KQs.

[Riverman]

if this game is at all tough you are toast

[stealyourface]

I agree, bet more on the turn and i think the river will be played out differently. As it stands i think calling on the river was the right play, because your smallish turn bet looks like a weak ace to me. Also, its may be slightly more difficult for him to put you on top 2 pair because you limped preflop.

[gomberg]

I think this is a call as well for reasons already stated - but wouldn't be surprised to see an 8s9s or some hand along those lines. Barring a better read I call if he has some bluff in him.

[cero_z]

Hi AZK,

We need to know a little more about this guy to give a very helpful answer, but assuming he's a "typical" tough, good reader, and not super-aggressive (since I think you'd have given him credit sooner if he was):

I say call the river, though I think it's close. He appears to be making a value bet, which is bad for you, except for one thing: you've really underplayed your hand to this point, so he doesn't necessarily know that your hand can beat AK/AQ. Still, I think you're good about 1/3 of the time here; you can only beat a bluff, a misplayed AK, or a badly misplayed AQ. Also, you might tie; AJ actually makes a little sense for him to play this way.

I don't understand why you didn't raise on the flop. You put him on exactly the kind of hand that will give you action there but not later if a scare card hits. Think about it: if he has AQ, you will profit slightly by waiting, since he'll probably fold if you raise him on the flop, and he'll definitely drop it on the turn, after firing again and getting raised. But if he has AK, A8, or J8, he will probably not give up on the flop, and will possibly give you all of his chips if you make it 250-400 right there.

Especially given that you felt a set was unlikely, this seems like a very bad spot to trap with top two. There are tons of draws available, which may cause him to a)Hit and bust you, b)Shut down when a scare card arrives (and there are many).

On the turn, I would've bet about 60%-80%, because you can't let him draw for free, and you're probably ahead. I have more to say about his play in this hand, but it's 3:30am, and baby Dario is crying. Peace Out.

[AZK]

Hypothetically speaking, now that I know what he had after I called...if I raised this flop, to say 300 to go. He would have reraised 800 or 900 to go. How do you feel about AJ now?

[AZK]

I agree 200 on the turn sounds better, I don't really know what my logic was, I think it was something along the lines of, this is the best player at the table, I just have top 2, I want to play a small pot against him...but yeah, should have definitely bet more, he would have called 2 too.

[cero_z]

Hi AZK,

[ QUOTE ]
now that I know what he had after I called...if I raised this flop, to say 300 to go. He would have reraised 800 or 900 to go. How do you feel about AJ now?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say, but that is what I wanted him to do. I'd almost always put the rest in at that point. I really feel that with the overbet on the flop, your assessment is on target--AK/AQ or 2 pair; I think most would bet a little less with a set. A very big draw is also possible, though many players would check-raise with that hand. Again, since this is a good player, a lot depends on the context of the previous hands, so it's hard to say. But realistically, the only way to play a small pot with this hand is to fold it if he puts the pressure on you later, and folding is no fun.
[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Also in the mix is your guess as to how he'd play AK, JJ, and 88 from the SB vs. several limpers. Is he the type to just call with AK and JJ? I used to be, but now when I'm reading my opponents well, I don't see the need to, especially with AK. Presumably, most everyone would just call with AQ, AJ, KQs, J8, A8, 88, KTs, T9s, etc., and everyone would raise with AA.

[ QUOTE ]
this is the best player at the table, I just have top 2, I want to play a small pot against him...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this, unless there are very special circumstances, i.e., the others at the table are just giving there money away, you can't (or won't) just reload if you lose, and he's not so active that you can't avoid a big confrontation at some point. You have a very nice hand here, given the action up to this point. If you're behind, you probably have 4 outs twice. If you're ahead, you're between a 60%--90% favorite. I'm happy to move 2K in in a spot like this.

As played, though, your hand gets a lot shakier on the river. As I said, I would've made a crying call.