attitude on coinflips

[Simplistic]

i've found that the SNG forum is very coinflip averse. i'm trying to understand why this is so.

my opinion is that sngs are very short tournaments where you have to press your edges. i have no problems flipping for my stack provided i'm consistently getting in as a favourite. obviously if you're consistently putting your chips in as a 45/55 then you are going to be a loser. in the long run as long as you're getting your money in as a favourite i'm fine with it because you will shot a profit.

[Shillx]

Chips don't have equal value since the most equity you can have in an SNG is 50%. In a cash game, you would take any (in theory, I'm sure there are exceptions) +cEV gamble. Taking these gambles in an SNG comes with an underlay (often significant). If you flip on the 1st hand (with 10% equity at the start), you only move up to 18.44% equity when you win. So every flip costs you .78% of the prize pool. So no, taking flips will not show a profit.

[Simplistic]

[ QUOTE ]
Chips don't have equal value. In a cash game, you would take any (in theory, I'm sure there are exceptions) +cEV gamble. Taking these gambles in an SNG comes with an underlay (often significant). So if you flip on the 1st hand (with 10% equity at the start), you only move up to 18.44% equity when you win. So every flip costs you .78% of the prize pool. So no, taking flips will not show a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]your explanation is the same as people who question whether to take flips in MTTs, yet the consensus in MTTs is that you should push small edges

[ChrisV]

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Chips don't have equal value. In a cash game, you would take any (in theory, I'm sure there are exceptions) +cEV gamble. Taking these gambles in an SNG comes with an underlay (often significant). So if you flip on the 1st hand (with 10% equity at the start), you only move up to 18.44% equity when you win. So every flip costs you .78% of the prize pool. So no, taking flips will not show a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]your explanation is the same as people who question whether to take flips in MTTs, yet the consensus in MTTs is that you should push small edges

[/ QUOTE ]

The difference is that the prize pool in MTTs is so massively top-heavy. Gambling makes sense because your whole aim is to get into the top few spots. In SNGs, the prize differential between 4th and 3rd is equal largest, along with 2nd -> 1st. Trying to squeeze into the money and aiming for first place are equal goals which should concern SNG players.

In a reply you said that you understand not coinflipping for your stack on the bubble. How about 5 ways? When do you think it ends? Bubble play principles extend to a small extent all the way back to 10 players.

A couple of facts and figures from the ICM, both from 1000 chip starting tourneys:

- ICM equity after doubling through in a battle of the blinds on the first hand is 18.44% of prize pool, up from (obviously) 10% of prize pool. It nowhere near doubles your equity. The break-even point is being a 54.23% favourite. This means that if it folded to the SB who went allin and revealed AKo, you would be correct to fold small pairs (larger ones are a marginal call because of the reduced chance of being counterfeited).

- Having 751 chips on the bubble with the other players all holding equal stacks of 3083 is equal to your starting equity of 10%. If you just do nothing, fold all your hands and make it to the bubble with 750 chips, you will have broken even. The situation is even better if the remaining stacks are uneven.

[splashpot]

I was going to link Aleomagus's old post regarding "A bad way to play on the bubble". But with the new forum upgrade, the search function has gone to crap.

[Simplistic]

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to link Aleomagus's old post regarding "A bad way to play on the bubble". But with the new forum upgrade, the search function has gone to crap.

[/ QUOTE ]regardless of bubble play, i can understand why wanting to flip with 4 left depending on your stack size is a bad thing, but then does that universally apply?

[mlagoo]

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I was going to link Aleomagus's old post regarding "A bad way to play on the bubble". But with the new forum upgrade, the search function has gone to crap.

[/ QUOTE ]regardless of bubble play, i can understand why wanting to flip with 4 left depending on your stack size is a bad thing, but then does that universally apply?

[/ QUOTE ]

the idea is that rather than risking all your chips on an early coinflip, you can save your chips (and, you know, hopefully add some along the way) for the two places where you should have the largest edge: 1) postflop play; and 2) after the blinds go up, where you will have the edge in understanding how to pushbot optimally.

[Simplistic]

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I was going to link Aleomagus's old post regarding "A bad way to play on the bubble". But with the new forum upgrade, the search function has gone to crap.

[/ QUOTE ]regardless of bubble play, i can understand why wanting to flip with 4 left depending on your stack size is a bad thing, but then does that universally apply?

[/ QUOTE ]

the idea is that rather than risking all your chips on an early coinflip, you can save your chips (and, you know, hopefully add some along the way) for the two places where you should have the largest edge: 1) postflop play; and 2) after the blinds go up, where you will have the edge in understanding how to pushbot optimally.

[/ QUOTE ]this argument is the same as the one put forth in MTT strategy yet it is wrong there. is it wrong in sngs? perhaps. but perhaps not.

[mlagoo]

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I was going to link Aleomagus's old post regarding "A bad way to play on the bubble". But with the new forum upgrade, the search function has gone to crap.

[/ QUOTE ]regardless of bubble play, i can understand why wanting to flip with 4 left depending on your stack size is a bad thing, but then does that universally apply?

[/ QUOTE ]

the idea is that rather than risking all your chips on an early coinflip, you can save your chips (and, you know, hopefully add some along the way) for the two places where you should have the largest edge: 1) postflop play; and 2) after the blinds go up, where you will have the edge in understanding how to pushbot optimally.

[/ QUOTE ]this argument is the same as the one put forth in MTT strategy yet it is wrong there. is it wrong in sngs? perhaps. but perhaps not.

[/ QUOTE ]

its not, because there is no such thing as optimal pushbotting in mtts -- at least, it isnt anywhere NEAR as important as it is in SNGs, and so the misunderstanding of it isnt as big of a disadvantage for your opponents.

not to mention that, since you are talking about being on the good side of coinflips (the PP side), I assume you're talking about putting it allin with 99 or something like that. how is it you're able to narrow your opponents range to just overcards, and not overpairs? this is a pretty common flaw in this sort of thought.

also, the fact that it is such a short tournament is exactly why you don't need to take these coinflips. a lot of MTT experts will willingly stick their money in what they think will be a coinflip situation early because they realize that it is a long road and they have to accumulate chips. this isnt necessary in SNGs where you can simply wait until the blinds rise and steal like crazy.

Do I want to risk my whole tournament on a coin flip? No. At any SNG (at my cash level) I sit at, I count myself among the best players at the table. Why risk my tournament life on a coin flip when, so long as I have chips, I can generally outplay my opponents?

When am I willing to get into a coin flip situation -- I'm short stacked and need to double up, or calling the other guy's all in isn't going to cripple me if I lose.

swear