When you need to fill, and have them not fill.

[Duke]

If there are seen cards that hurt your opposition's chances of improvement, but they have larger trips than you, with extra opponents in the hand it is possible that you're an equity favorite.

Just making sure this is common knowledge. It came up in a hand I played last night.

~D

[jon_1van]

Two dimes results

Jd Js Jc 3h 4s
Qs Qd Qh Jh 5c
(3 remaining 5s dead)

Qs win 69.2 %

Jd Js Jc 3h 4s 6d
Qs Qd Qh Jh 5c 9s
(all 5s and all 9s dead)

Qs win 74.3%

If you assume that any extra bets being made/called by another hand cannot win (bad assumption) then you will need 2 other opponents to have an small equity edge on that round of betting (ie I'm gonna win this 1 in 3 times but 4 people put in money).

But this is an ideal situation when you know your opponent only has 1 out (case Q) to redraw on your draw. I don't think you'll be able to confidently put an opponent on so few outs very often.

Therefore, outside of this ideal situation, I'd just call and hope to fill (assuming a raise won't fold someone who could beat you after you fill)

[Andy B]

You mean that in a five-way pot, you might have more than 20% equity? Sure, that's possible.

[Duke]

I mean that given the dead cards, you can have better equity than the higher trips. I ran the nubers specific to the spot I found myself in, and I was at 36% with her being at 34.7% or something.

~D

[Andy B]

So were you up against a straight flush draw, or perhaps two or three drawing hands? The higher trips' equity is probably going to those hands about as much as it is to yours. What was the specific scenario?

[Duke]

The scenario: I was rolled up with 6's, had a deuce kicker I caught on 4th, and the 888 caught on 4th, a guy with a probable 789T, another guy with aces in the hole and a 35 up, another guy on clubs with the jack of clubs and some other "not my card" club up. By 5th she had caught a jack, which screwed her since he had a jack up card, I caught a Q which was still pretty lively, the aces paired his 5, the straight caught another jack and put in a raise, everyone else put the brakes on.

I could know that her other hole card was either a 7, 9, or an ace since it was a ton of action between me and the 3(AA) on 3rd (that's how I was pretty sure that he had aces in the hole) and she kept on calling along on the installment plan. I think she dumps 8(8 gay) earlier on in the raising.

Anyhow - you can't always know exactly what cards the other person has, but you can have an idea and then see what up cards they have. The neat part is that you actually can be a favorite in that spot.

And surely it's easy to have >20% equity, so just because you're behind one player at the moment doesn't mean it's time to dump.

This hand happened in a decent 40-80 game with only one solid player - the woman with the 888. I got the idea that I knew my cards were live, and figured I was getting enough equity from the others to continue at all times, then ran the numbers with the cards I now knew they were holding (based on showdowns and upflung losing hands) through twodimes to see that I was actually a favorite.

I thought it was kinda neat.

~D

[Duke]

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore, outside of this ideal situation, I'd just call and hope to fill (assuming a raise won't fold someone who could beat you after you fill)

[/ QUOTE ]

The case 8 was dead, her other candidate hole cards were looking dead, and so on. My case 6 was live, my other cards were totally live.

I'd imagine that even if this were not the case, you'd have enough equity to chase - given the other money from the other hands in the pot (with draws that cannot win if I fill).

~D

[jon_1van]

Were you up against something like this
6c 6h 6d 2s Qc (.387)
7d 8h 9s Tc Jh (.207)
Ac Ah 3d 5s 5h (.124)
3c 4c Jc 7c Td (.080)
As 8s 8d 8c Js (.203)

So it looks like you have 7 outs to improve (out of 27 cards) nice

Very interesting situation. Nice hand reading especially if you suspected all that info before the downcards were shown

[Duke]

You can never be 100% certain. The important parts, I think, are that I knew for a fact that my cards were live, and I knew for a fact that some of her cards were dead. I then made educated guesses to kill off some of her other cards since her opponents were playing through her "money zone."

Stud, at least for me, is much more complicated than hold'em. There is so much additional data to process. The cool part is that most of your opponents won't do much with that data.

The sad thing is that the actual play of the hand isn't affected much by all of that additional data, unless it's reversed - you know you have dead cards so you fold on 4th and get out of the money drain situation.

And me and her were like 36/34.8 or something as far as equity went, so she was a little more live than that.

~D