Limit O8 flopped weak FH

[L0QTiS]

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Omaha/8 (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

CO probably has a bare 9 with 3 live cards while I'm not likely to redraw to anything better. Consider, at this limit many will chase the low, or high pockets hoping to hit.

What's your game plan.

[IronDragon1]

Barring the extremely unlikely event of hitting quads, I call this-and others like it-down.

You might want to get a second opinion-I'm awful.

[Stevo]

This kind of hand loses money a lot. While you're getting 12.5-1 odds to call (with 2 others most likely calling making it 14.5-1, you can't hope to catch anything (as the 2 is probably out in someone's hand).

Those pot odds work against you too though. Anyone with a pocket pair can see that 14.5-1 is about enough for them to try to catch their house (especially if they have a low draw or redraw to a flush). And depending on the people/limit, they might even call if you raise.

It depends how you want to play it. There's a good argument to be made to fold your hand. If you check/call, anyone with a pocket pair (that probably should have folded) could hit their card and you wouldn't know, and the raiser could always pair his other card. If you reraise and he calls, against you have no idea where you stand until the cards are turned up.

A similiar situation would be if you had 289T in the BB, and the flop came down 6-7-9 with 2 suits you dont have. While you have the nuts now, there's a low out there you can't get, a flush out there you have to avoid, bigger straights, and the board could pair. The only way to keep this hand would be at a REALLY tight table or heads up.

Sometimes you should bite the bullet and fold the best hand at that time. Just like in holdem, a pair of 2s might be the best hand preflop, but with a ton of action, you're either beat or any card that flops (other than a 2) could beat you.

Maybe I'm wrong. In PL you could reraise big to force him to pay for his 10 outs, but in a limit game you're going to win a little or lose a lot. I would fold though.

[Buzz]

L0QTiS - You don't know if you're up against a set of nines or a full house (nines over deuces). CO probably a set of nines, as you suspect, but could have flopped a full house, in which case you're already dead.

I think you can assume that if CO does have a full house, and if you check, CO will bet behind you. If CO doesn't (yet) have a full house and you check, CO might bet behind you or might take the free card.
If CO does bet behind your check on the third betting round, and if you call the raise on the second betting round, then I think you call the bet on the third betting round (because CO might not yet have a full house).
If CO takes the free card, then I think you assume CO doesn't yet have the full house and in that case, I think you can afford to bet on the river, and CO should probably call you.
If CO bets behind your check on the third betting round, then I think you check and call on the fourth betting round. But if CO doesn't have a full house, and doesn't make one on the turn or river, but bets the turn, it will be pretty hard for you to bet into CO on the fourth betting round.
Therefore, what you win if you have a winner and two low cards don't come, is 18 small bets. If low does come and you win, you maybe only win 7.5 or 8.5 small bets, or so, depending.

(Phew). Babble, babble, babble. Kind of garbled reasoning above. I don't even want to re-read it myself. Seemed right while I was wading through it. Basically you're screwed because you're out of position.

Low figures to get there 240/990 and not get there 750/990.
Figure your win as 18*750/990+8*250/990, on average, or about 16SB, on average.
meanwhile, your loss will probably be 5SB. So you're going to get about 3.2 to 1 pot odds.
Meanwhile, if CO doesn't yet have the boat and if CO has 3 live cards, the odds against CO making a boat, considering your own cards, are
only about 465 to 355 or about 1.3 to 1.
Thus it looks like CO has a better chance of making a boat than you're getting for projected pot odds.
If that wasn't bad enough, one of those other opponents very well could have the other nine and also be drawing for a boat.
And then there's still the possibility that CO already has the full house.
When you put it all together, it really does look rather bleak.
I might have some wrong figuring in there because CO might have a nine and an ace and/or jack, which would cut into his odds a bit. But even so... it still looks very bleak.

I don't see how a re-raise would help you here. You're either going to get bumped again or not, and either way, I think you're backing off on the third betting round.

You're simply out of position here.

Goes against the grain to fold a flopped full house, even an under-boat. You don't want to look weak/tight, a terrible table image, and you could be getting bluffed or semi-bluffed out of the pot, especially if you already have such an image. Well... actually if you do fold here, it will probably look as though you were bluffing yourself and therefore won't hurt your table image.

All things (hopefully) considered, I agree with Stevo and think folding to the raise is probably your best move here.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Ironman]

Buzz,

You mention table image. As someone who just played against L0Q a few days ago, let me tell you his table image is one of a tight player. He only plays a few hands, so those hands he is part of...he's got the goods.

Now, I do admit that most of the people at our .5/1 table are not that observant, but there are a couple of us.

For me, the key is the check call on the turn. If your opponent lets it check through on the turn, then I bet out on the river.

I don't think I can let this go on the turn if he bets out, even though it's probably the right thing to do.

Good luck,

Dave

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I can let this go on the turn if he bets out, even though it's probably the right thing to do.


[/ QUOTE ]
I can't lay this down on the flop either. Let's consider this hand from the raiser's (CO) point of view. Let's assume CO is not a moron and he's holding 99xx (already a bit of a stretch). Flop comes 992. As CO, you see UTG bet and get a caller in front of you. Would you raise here? If I've got quads and have 2 customers ahead of me, awesome. Maybe my smooth call can keep in anyone else behind me and get them to bet out on the turn as well where I drop the hammer.

But if I've got something like the vulnerable 9432, I'm thinking I want to get rid of people. I'm worried about hands like AKQ9 (9 + overcards) and low chasers.

With twos full, your biggest worry is someone holding 92xx. I'd call the flop raise and see what the others do. If you still have 2 or more opponents at the turn I think you can check-fold. If there are two hands out with a 9, you've got a lot of full house cards to dodge and you'll never know if you're good or not.

[Buzz]

Dave - Some would re-raise here, then lead out on the turn, and then lead on the river.

But I think that's overplaying the flopped (but lowest possible) full house.

How about simply calling? At first glance it looks like Hero is getting fantastic odds to call the raise, 14 to 1.

But wait. If Hero calls this raise, looking ahead, how does Hero play the third and fourth betting rounds? My thinking is that if Hero commits here, Hero should probably be in for the showdown. And my thinking is the prudent play, assuming Hero calls, is to check the third and probably fourth betting rounds (assuming CO bets on the third betting round).

So, looking ahead, my thinking is Hero is going to be stuck on both the third and fourth betting rounds. My thinking is Hero should check to CO - and then will be at the mercy of CO.

If CO already has a full house, or if CO makes a full house, Hero, having called the raise, is going to find it difficult to get out of the pot. (I would find it difficult).

So my thinking is Hero, by calling the raise, is not just committing one small bet. Hero is committing a check/call on the turn and another check/call on the river - five small bets in all. That's if CO (or another player) has or makes a full house.

But if nobody else makes a full house, then there may not be any bets for Hero to collect on the river, unless someone bluffs on the river.

Hero bet the flop and was called by UTG+1 and MP3. Do neither of them know how to play the game?? Even it neither does, one of them could still have a nine. If we put CO on A-9-X-Y for the raise, then there's a strong possibility UTG+1 or MP3 has the other nine. Or one of them could have an overpair or two, maybe kings and/or queens. There are lots of ways for Hero to be beaten here,

Basically, by calling the raise, and then being in the position of (prudently) checking the turn and river, Hero is chasing.

I don't like to be chasing in this game.

CO has made it tough by siezing the initiative - and alas, there's not much Hero can do about it. Hero could try re-raising, as Greg suggests, but re-raising is fraught with peril and might not work anyhow.

However, I like re-raising better than calling (and thus chasing).

One difficulty is Hero really doesn't know whether CO already has nines full or not. Another difficulty is when seven players see the flop and the flop is paired, there are more often than not multiple full houses on the river - and Hero will have the worst of them.

Hero may have the best hand now, immediately after the flop (or maybe not) - but I don't think Hero is favored to have the best hand on the river. Flopped underboats are a bit like flopped middle card straights. This is Omaha-8, the drawing game, the river game. The hand that's best on the flop is not necessarily best on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
his table image is one of a tight player

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe you. Not that it matters, but I wasn't referring to a possible tight player image in my previous post.

Note that "tight" and "weak/tight" have distinctly different meanings.

Buzz

[J_V]

Way too likely you are good. 99 or 92 is much less likely than a bare nine, IMO. Other provide gravy, the pot must be jammed and its not close at all.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Way too likely you are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

J.V. - Think so? I would agree that Hero probably (but not surely) has a hand that would be a winner if the game stopped immediately after the flop.

However, the possibility of CO having a better fit with this flop than Hero is not at all in the monster under the bed category - and you seem to be entirely disregarding that possibility.

[ QUOTE ]
99 or 92 is much less likely than a bare nine

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. But that’s not all there is to it.

I think CO has a nine for the raise, very possibly with an ace kicker. Now... does CO also have the case deuce? That’s the concern. I’ll agree it’s a more likely than not that CO doesn’t also have the case deuce - but it’s surely not a slam-dunk.

Once you put the nine and the ace in CO’s hand, also putting the deuce there somehow doesn’t seem remote. Don’t misunderstand. I’m not claiming CO has the deuce. I think CO probably doesn’t have the deuce. But there seems a distinct possibility CO does have the deuce. CO posted, making it more difficult to read CO’s cards here. (If CO had not posted, I’d put CO on A29X, A39X, A49X or A59X or 99XY - but with the post it’s harder to tell. With the post, CO could have random cards - except that CO raised the flop bet after two limpers, and raising the flop doesn’t signify random cards.

If one disregards the possibility that CO already has nines full of deuces (or quad nines), then things are different. However, I don’t think Hero should disregard that possibility. It’s a subtle difference, and I’m not sure I making it clear enough that you can see it. But you seem to be making it black or white while in truth it’s grey.

Maybe I’m taking too conservative of an approach, but I really don’t like deuces full once someone starts acting like they might have a better full house (or quads). And yes, I’m fully aware that CO doesn’t absolutely need a full house (or quads) to raise this flop bet.

In last position with Hero’s hand, I might raise a bet myself, or surely would bet if nobody else did. But once Hero bets from early position and gets raised, the hand doesn’t look nearly as good to me.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Wintermute]

I'd call here, check-call the turn, and lead out on the river. If you get raised on the river (and no low has come) you can safely fold there.