Hillary for president at 6:1

[college kid]

I found Hillary at +600 for being president next term, and after going through online and seeing a bunch of stuff and what people think about her chances of running and so on and so forth, I really think this might be a good bet. But I don't know exactly what goes into running and winning and how likely it is that something will make her not run, or not win (though if she runs, I can't imagine she won't win). Anybody who is good with props have any advice on Hillary at +600? I think it's +EV, but I don't have much experience in getting a true value for this type of thing.

[Double Down]

you might want to post this in sports betting.

It could be good value. Where'd you find this?

[Wake up CALL]

You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

[henrikrh]

[ QUOTE ]
You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Her true odds are probably 30:1, she's not a bad candidate but equality hasn't come that far, being a woman is a huge handicap.

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[
Her true odds are probably 30:1, she's not a bad candidate but equality hasn't come that far, being a woman is a huge handicap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I think there is a pretty significant percentage of people who simply will not vote for a woman. I don't have a clue how to estimate the size though. I was thinking in the 5-10% range. What do you guys think?

In any case, this is a pretty huge headstart for the republican.

[OrangeKing]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Her true odds are probably 30:1, she's not a bad candidate but equality hasn't come that far, being a woman is a huge handicap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree somewhat. In recent years, female candidates for Senate have been overwhelmingly successful when they've run (in other words - there aren't that many female Senators, but the relatively few female candidates for Senate have been extremely successful). Of course, running for president is a different animal, and may not be quite as kind since it'll be the first time a woman has seriously run for the office. It's a handicap, but a relatively small one, especially considering that the overwhelming majority of people who still wouldn't vote for a female candidate (and that group is a fairly small percentage of the population - 25% at most) wouldn't vote for a Democrat either.

Her larger problem comes from the fact that there are a large than usual number of people who specifically won't vote for her. There's always a large section of the country who won't vote for any given candidate, but the anti-Hillary vote is larger than usual given how much she's been demonized over the years.

All that said, if she runs in 2008, which looks likely, she'll be the favorite to win the Democratic nomination - not in absolute terms, but over any other candidate out there. If she gets the nomination, I don't think she's any worse than 35-40% to win the general election. I have a feeling that if you did research and plugged the numbers in, you'd come out with a little less than the value you needed at 6-1. 10-1 and I'd take it.

[MCS]

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I have a feeling that if you did research and plugged the numbers in, you'd come out with a little less than the value you needed at 6-1. 10-1 and I'd take it.

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Dude, I DID plug numbers in. Check my post. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Marc H]

Hillary for President is a conservative wet-dream, not anything resembling reality. I personally don't believe she will be nominated, but if she is it's a SURE loss in the general election, for the personal-popularity reasons OrangeKing articulated.

I wouldn't touch this bet at 20:1.

[Jeffage]

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Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

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LOL, I guarantee all bets have action regardless.

Jeff