Dodging a check-raise?

Stealthy · #1 11-21-2005, 11:32 AM

UTG+1 is 80/17/.9 after 50 hands so reasonably aggressive given his hands seen. UTG+2 is 26/8.7/1 and fairly passive without a decent hand.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

This is not actually standard for me as I would usually bet/fold here against most players, but can I suggest that I had a "feeling" that a queen was out here! Or did I play it correctly anyway? I check intending to call a river bet if I don't improve. I guess that I would be temped to call down a check-raise from UTG+1 given his stats and did not want to put myself in that spot.

WA or WB line anyone? Or just bad.

sean c · #2 11-21-2005, 11:36 AM

Hi Stealthy this is a tough spot but given the texture of the board and the fact that two players are still in i would bet the turn. Whether or not you bet/call or bet/fold is pretty player dependent.

#3 11-21-2005, 11:39 AM

I'd bet the turn every time. I'm not sure I'd fold to a raise unless UTG raised and UTG+1 over called. Maybe that's worse than checking the turn, but I'd do it anyway. With stats like these, I don't think they need a Q to try a check raise against you. They could have A9, K9, J9, T9, 98, 88, 77, etc. (with or without a FD) and love their hand since they might put you on two overcards.

btspider · #4 11-21-2005, 11:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but can I suggest that I had a "feeling" that a queen was out here!

[/ QUOTE ]

you can, but i might laugh at you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i'd bet turn:
if UTG+1 check-raises, i call regardless of UTG+2 calling two or not (there are draws out there).

if UTG+1 calls and UTG+2 check-raises, i'd fold in the protected pot.

if UTG+1 folds and UTG+2 check-raises, i'd generally fold unless I've been laying down too much recently and I thought he might be taking a shot with a weaker hand.

Koss · #5 11-21-2005, 11:54 AM

This seems like a good check with outs otherwise bet example. If I had a flush draw or gutshot straight draw to fall back on here and I was sure that the Q was out there, I could see checking it, but I think you have to bet here. Even with outs, I would probably bet it every time.

Vote4Pedro · #6 11-21-2005, 11:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is not actually standard for me as I would usually bet/fold here against most players, but can I suggest that I had a "feeling" that a queen was out here!

[/ QUOTE ]

Good, this shouldnt be the standard play vs. any lineup...I'd also never bet/fold vs the 80/17 dude, or anything other aggro player on a board like this. Save expert laydowns like these for the most passive/predictable players. As for your "feeling"; being results oriented sucks dude, and if you're really that confident that one of those dudes has a Q, why not just fold the river UI?

Stealthy · #7 11-21-2005, 12:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is not actually standard for me as I would usually bet/fold here against most players, but can I suggest that I had a "feeling" that a queen was out here!

[/ QUOTE ]

Good, this shouldnt be the standard play vs. any lineup...I'd also never bet/fold vs the 80/17 dude, or anything other aggro player on a board like this. Save expert laydowns like these for the most passive/predictable players. As for your "feeling"; being results oriented sucks dude, and if you're really that confident that one of those dudes has a Q, why not just fold the river UI?

[/ QUOTE ]

I trust my instincts only so far! Not enough to fold for one bet but enough to stop me putting too many in if I only have 2 outs!

#8 11-21-2005, 12:07 PM

UTG+1 could be on virtually anything, but there's certainly no reason to assume that he has a Q; as for UTG+2, a lot of the hands with a Q that he gets, he's raising pre-flop (AQ, KQ) or dumping (Qx). Given this guy's pre-flop stats, it appears that you're putting him on the narrow range of QJs or QTs, and maybe Q9s or Q8s given that he's a little loose. Overpairs also get raised here PF, I would imagine.

I guess what I'm saying is that I see now reason to assume that the Q is out there, or that we're not likely to be ahead. Your opponents know that there's less of a chance anyone connected with a QQ5 board, and perhaps figure you for a standard continuation bet with an A, or a weaker PP. They're probably just hoping to improve, not trap you. Also, two hearts are out there, so between that and the Ks and As that can beat us, I hate giving a free card here. We were fortunate to see that friendly 9, but we may not be so fortunate on the river. The risk of a CR is one we have to take. Bet.

MrWookie47 · #9 11-21-2005, 12:12 PM

Don't trust your instincts. Trust the math. btspider nailed this one exactly. You have to bet this. You can't afford to give a free card to any A's or K's.

Stealthy · #10 11-21-2005, 12:18 PM

I suspect that I have posted a really bad hand here in the sense of poker playing.

My standard line here myself, and what I would reply to any other poster would be to bet the turn and call down a check/raise from the aggressive player but consider folding if the passive guy does it.

I bet here 95 times out of 100, this is one of the 5.

I want to draw this to a close as this hand has little merit for me as an anaysis. I know damn well that this is a bet on the turn. However in the strictest sense of "the fundemantal theorem of poker" as described in the Theory of Poker I played the turn correctly.

River J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] !!!

UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises. UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

UTG+1 has Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and MHIG.