Flop play: bottom pair + bdfd

Mathieu · #1 07-02-2005, 02:02 PM

When the bet comes from your right and the pot is big, SSH recommends raising with hands like bottom/middle pair +bdfd if doing so will increase your winning chances.

I find these hands more difficult to play when the pot is more than big enough to call (if I am last to act), but perhaps not big enough to warrant a raise.

In the hand below, CO (the preflop raiser) bets, and btn, (very LP) calls. The 4 remaining players are LOOSE and not very aggressive. CO will almost never reraise a strong hand on the flop, but he likes to go nuts on the river.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Button calls, Hero ... 

I'm getting 9-1 from the pot so I should call if I'm last to act. With 4 players behind me should I try to clear my outs by raising, or should I just call and hope no one raises behind me?

With at most 6.5 outs, I need more than 6.23 to 1 to make a call correct, getting 9-1 I can probably call and the overlay should compensate for the times it gets raised behind me. Is that correct?

Raising appears to be -EV whith that pot size, unless I make it up with implied odds when I improve by catching a 9 (the outs I was trying to clean).

So what's your play in this spot? How big would the pot have to be for raising to be correct?

davelin · #2 07-02-2005, 02:15 PM

Peel and pray no one raises behind you.

Mathieu · #3 07-02-2005, 02:20 PM

Thanks, that's what I thought. Do you think raising could ever be correct depending on the pot size?

davelin · #4 07-02-2005, 02:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, that's what I thought. Do you think raising could ever be correct depending on the pot size?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot size doesn't matter, it's about equity when you decide to bet/raise.

Mathieu · #5 07-02-2005, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, that's what I thought. Do you think raising could ever be correct depending on the pot size?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot size doesn't matter, it's about equity when you decide to bet/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's if your betting/raising for value. Here a raise would be to increase my winning chances since there are 4 players left to act. I'm pretty sure that to calculate the EV of such a play, whe have to take into account the pot size and the increase in equity that we get by cleaning outs.

Shillx · #6 07-02-2005, 02:43 PM

Raising the flop is silly. If you had a gutshot and an overcard and a backdoor flush draw, you might want to raise on the flop (if the pot were big enough to warrent it). In this case, you don't need to worry about clearing up outs since you are already paired up. If someone has a jack and your raise causes a guy to fold A9...who cares? You will almost never outdraw the guy holding the jack and then get outdrawn by the player holding A9. Getting him out of the pot isn't a priority since you currently have the worst hand (it would be different if your hand was best at the moment). If a nine comes, you will almost certainly have the best hand. You don't need to worry about "clearing" up those outs.

The time to raise is when you might get a better unpaired hand to fold. Say that your hand where A3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the flop was J42 with one [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. In this case it might be worth a raise even if you think that someone has a jack and will call all the way. The reason why is because NOW you would really like that guy holding A9 to fold. If an ace hits and he is still in the pot, it will be pushed his way. If you can knock him out you will "buy" an extra two outs (the two remaining aces in the deck). In reality it won't give you a full two outs (since top pair aces isn't a lock to win the hand), but it will increase the odds of you winning the pot if an ace comes.

Brad

Edit - As for the hand, you should either call or fold. If the game is aggressive you should fold here. Maybe call and hope if it is passive.

VoraciousReader · #7 07-02-2005, 02:58 PM

Would you clarify something Shill? Wouldn't there be value to the OP in folding a hand like Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? For one bet an overcard with a bdfd might think it's worthwhile to see the turn card. Then if the turn is a heart, completing his flush on the river could cost OP a couple of big bets (instead of one small bet on the turn). Plus, it might even get him a free card on the turn to hit his set or flush.

I don't really think that this particular hand justifies a raise, but if the pot were bigger, do you think it might be +EV?

Mathieu · #8 07-02-2005, 03:01 PM

Brad,

Thanks for your insights.

There are different ways of clearing outs though. For the hand that I showed, a 9 would put 3 to a straight on the board. So I would like someone with T8, QT to fold.

Do you think these hands are too unlikely to worry about, such that raising in this spot would probably always be wrong even if the pot is big enough?