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#2
11-10-2005, 11:19 AM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
Hou +1700 And somehow the head coach and GM are still with the team [/ QUOTE ] where are you finding +1700 
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#4
11-10-2005, 12:26 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
thx
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#5
11-10-2005, 03:47 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
down to +1600 uh oh
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#6
11-10-2005, 04:48 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
down to +1600 uh oh [/ QUOTE ] lol yeah the difference between +1700 and 1600 is about the same as the discrepancy between +115 and +116.5....0.33%
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#7
11-10-2005, 04:52 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] down to +1600 uh oh [/ QUOTE ] lol yeah the difference between +1700 and 1600 is about the same as the discrepancy between +115 and +116.5....0.33% [/ QUOTE ] i dont know much about moneylines, but are guys losing value by betting the ML as opposed the spread? heres my thought. a bettor isnt going to lay that much juice with the colts (a novice, and def not a sharp) so i think the moneyline may be deflated for those who love to chase the big payday.
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#8
11-10-2005, 04:59 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] down to +1600 uh oh [/ QUOTE ] lol yeah the difference between +1700 and 1600 is about the same as the discrepancy between +115 and +116.5....0.33% [/ QUOTE ] When the game's good, there is value to both if the threshold between win probability and price is sufficiently high. To break even on +1600, Houston needs to win 5.88% of the time. If you've calculated the probability as higher or much higher than this, the value is there. i dont know much about moneylines, but are guys losing value by betting the ML as opposed the spread? heres my thought. a bettor isnt going to lay that much juice with the colts (a novice, and def not a sharp) so i think the moneyline may be deflated for those who love to chase the big payday. [/ QUOTE ]
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#9
11-10-2005, 05:01 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] down to +1600 uh oh [/ QUOTE ] lol yeah the difference between +1700 and 1600 is about the same as the discrepancy between +115 and +116.5....0.33% [/ QUOTE ] i dont know much about moneylines, but are guys losing value by betting the ML as opposed the spread? heres my thought. a bettor isnt going to lay that much juice with the colts (a novice, and def not a sharp) so i think the moneyline may be deflated for those who love to chase the big payday. [/ QUOTE ] When the game's good, there is value to both if the threshold between win probability and price is sufficiently high. To break even on +1600, Houston needs to win 5.88% of the time. If you've calculated the probability as higher or much higher than this, the value is there.
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#10
11-10-2005, 05:19 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] down to +1600 uh oh [/ QUOTE ] lol yeah the difference between +1700 and 1600 is about the same as the discrepancy between +115 and +116.5....0.33% [/ QUOTE ] i dont know much about moneylines, but are guys losing value by betting the ML as opposed the spread? heres my thought. a bettor isnt going to lay that much juice with the colts (a novice, and def not a sharp) so i think the moneyline may be deflated for those who love to chase the big payday. [/ QUOTE ] When the game's good, there is value to both if the threshold between win probability and price is sufficiently high. To break even on +1600, Houston needs to win 5.88% of the time. If you've calculated the probability as higher or much higher than this, the value is there. [/ QUOTE ] yes, but like poker its not always about making moves (picks) that are +EV. for example, overlimping on the button with AA is +EV. however not raising is awful, as it is more +EV. lets say the texans spread (17.5) offers $1.35 in value for every $50 wagered and the ML offers $.99 in value for every $50 wagered (this numbers are made up of course). Why would you take money you could be putting on the bet with more +EV and put it on with less, when the results of the bet are intertwined with each other?
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