QQ in BB, capped 4 way pot

[Mathieu]

If utg folds AK to a reraise getting ~11-1, reraising is probably worth it since it gives us 6 safe cards if CO has JJ or 99.

The problem is that utg is getting good odds, and even if he is tight, I don't think he will fold if he has A or K of spade for the bdfd. In the heat of the action he might fold a spadeless AK if he discounts his outs or suspect he is against a much better hand.

If utg was looser post flop, the best line would be to call down since I think we are not ahead of CO's range of hands here. I certainly don't want to play any line that involves a big laydown vs CO since he is unknown.

what about calling the flop and check-raising a non ace or king?

The pot is huge so I think really have to think about trying to get UTG out of there, and so what if you lose a bet or two. I don't hate a 3-bet on the flop followed by leading a non-ace non-king turn, if he doesn't fold the flop he will likely fold to the turn lead if he doesn't improve as he is afraid the turn will get capped. Or go for a c/r on the turn, you will likely eliminate UTG if he has AK, and are unlikely to get three bet by CO unless he has AA, even then he might give you credit for a set. Downside there is that CO may have AK and take a free card.

[Mathieu]

This is actually the line I took during the hand. It protect our hand vs AK if CO has JJ. But overall I think it is the worst line. If I give (AA,KK,QQ,TT,99,AsKs and say AhKh, AK (with a spade) ) to CO, it looks like I'm in good enough shape. But the only hands which I beat that he is likely to bet on the turn are JJ and maybe 99.

I also don't want to fold to a 3 bet vs an unknown in such a big pot.

[Mathieu]

tehox,

I spent alot of time analysing the CR on the turn line. I used it during the hand, and I think it was the worst one as I pointed out earlier. I ran some EV estimates, and the gain from folding utg on the turn was less than 0.5BB, much less than the extra raise I have to throw in. This is because I only benefit from this raise in rare cases where CO has a weaker hand than me that he will bet on the turn.

Driving utg out on the flop if possible, would gain me more (6 safe cards twice) at a cheaper price.

I am wondering how often he has to fold for a raise to be worthwile.

Good analysis. I always kind of wonder about when to apply this concept from SSHE. And I think my saying "so what if you lose an extra bet or two" probably is not correct here. The equity you gain from folding UTG is not that great to make up for the bets you lose, like you say. I like the flop 3bet the best for that reason, if you fold him great, if not you're at least getting him to put more money in. This changes a lot if CO is a LAG who might be doing this with a lot of hands that you beat.