88 Out of Position

[vmacosta]

I never grasp the line an opponent took in the following hand, so maybe you can explain it to me. Comments on my play also welcome:

Villain raises 3 off button and I 3-bet in CO, all fold and villain calls.

Flop is:
4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain bets, I raise, villain calls.

Turn is:
7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain checks, I bet, villain calls.

River is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Vilain checks, I check.

For now I'll mereley reveal villain's hand and please evaluate his play...he showed black 8s.

Later I'll tell you my hand.

[olavfo]

Villain's openraise from MP is standard.

He doesn't know whether you hit the flop or not, and he's got a hand so he decides to take the lead and inform you of this fact. When you raise, he hopes you have overcard(s) and/or a flush draw and he decides to call down.

Many are incapable of folding medium pocket pairs in this spot, so they just call down and pray. It's very profitable (for you).

[vmacosta]

So then is it ever the right line? Do they usually fold big bet streets when a flush card or Bway card comes? How about a 9?

[Nick C]

I don't like Villain's flop lead very much. He's a big underdog to your range on that flop, and you were going to auto-bet anyway, right?

However, let's say your range is AA-TT and AK-AQ. In that case, about one time out of three Villain will currently be in the lead on the flop. He also has the worst of the outs (even when he's a favorite, he's not a favorite by much), and his equity sucks. But if an ace, king, or jack falls, he'll see that card and can check-fold. And if none of those cards fall, you might take a free card on the turn or take a free showdown on the river.

So, aside from the flop lead, I think Villain's play is all right.

I don't like villain's line at all. Since the flop has been addressed, I'm going to provide my thoughts on the turn. The optimal turn line is bet/fold, in my opinion. When villain is ahead, you'll have ~10 outs (villain is likely only ahead of AK, and possibly AJ), and therefore it's paramount villain charges draws, and avoids giving a free card.

I also think there's a strong argument for check/folding the flop because of the reverse implied odds. It's likely villain is behind, and when ahead you have a vast number of outs to improve to a superior hand. Conversely, villain's drawing close to dead, and it's unlikely you'll pay off with a busted draw/overs.

Come to think of it, I'm leaning toward simply folding the flop.

I think the villian played this hand well...

...up to the flop.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like villain's line at all. Since the flop has been addressed, I'm going to provide my thoughts on the turn. The optimal turn line is bet/fold, in my opinion. When villain is ahead, you'll have ~10 outs (villain is likely only ahead of AK, and possibly AJ), and therefore it's paramount villain charges draws, and avoids giving a free card.

I also think there's a strong argument for check/folding the flop because of the reverse implied odds. It's likely villain is behind, and when ahead you have a vast number of outs to improve to a superior hand. Conversely, villain's drawing close to dead, and it's unlikely you'll pay off with a busted draw/overs.

Come to think of it, I'm leaning toward simply folding the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a turn donk is fine so long as Villain isn't too concerned about getting semibluff-raised.

Hero is unlikely to fold any of his likely holdings on the turn. And if he won't fold AKo, then a turn donk is worth about 3/4 to 4/5 of a BB versus that hand, assuming Hero will always take the free card with AK if offered and will never raise the turn with AK.

Plus, if Hero can be counted on to raise only his better hands, then Villain can lay down now and avoid a difficult river decision (at the cost of losing his small chance of spiking a set).

The reason I hesitate to bet-fold the turn is that I've been running into some very aggressive overcard play (well, that's how it seems to me -- I'm still adjusting to 5/10), and I'm worried that a turn donk will look like a bet-fold line and will invite Hero to call with some hands that have Villain beat and semibluff-raise with hands that don't. Also, I think a lot of players will fire again anyway with AK (if checked to).

On the flop, I don't have a big problem with check-folding, but I would probably check-call instead.

[MitchL]

Sounds very simply like a fish who's praying you have AK. Is he right? His line still sucks, but thats why he is a fish, no?

[Nick C]

By the way, if Villain had a read that Hero was likely to auto-bet AK on the flop but then check that hand with outs unimproved on the turn, then I think the following line should become a consideration for Villain:

Check-call flop, check-fold turn unimproved. If the turn checks through, figure you have the best hand and either check-call on a river blank, hoping to induce a bluff, or bet a river blank, hoping to get called by ace-high.

[vmacosta]

Of course I had AdJd and mhing. I always 3-bet PF AJs here since too many people in my games seem to think 6-max means raise any Axo UTG.

As for the flop, of course I was autobetting and I was autoraising as well. Villain's lead seemed so childish...what hand 3bets PF but mucks for 1 SB on a QTx 2-tone flop? 99? So the bet will never fold me and will never gain valuable info since I'm raising it nearly every time. The turn is a standard continution for me since I have a monster draw and might even have the best hand. The river check-behind is also standard, but I'm wondering if there are people out there who continue to bet as a bluff (this play actually occasionally works in mid-limit BM since some players "know" that you wouldnt bet the river with A-high and thus must have better than 88).