Getting frisky with PP on double paired board

aflaba · #1 09-11-2005, 05:20 PM

Button is 50/14, 1, kind of passive
BB is 50/30, 2, has tried to take shot(s)
Ain't that a great table?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, Button calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.00 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, Button bets, Hero raises, (2 players to act)

Is there any point to the raise?

Womble · #2 09-11-2005, 05:48 PM

No. If you think he is taking a shot, just call him down or raise river. The turn card hasnt helped you

dave44 · #3 09-11-2005, 06:20 PM

If Button is passive, I don't like your turn raise. After his flop coldcall his range of hands contains 6's, K's and pocket pairs, and diamonds. His turn bet is a 6 or K way too often IMO since most pocket pairs just got counterfeited and flush draws want a free card despite the fact they're not lookin great on this board either. I'd just call and see what happens.

mannika · #4 09-11-2005, 06:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The turn card hasnt helped you

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this statement is incorrect.

aflaba · #5 09-12-2005, 04:13 PM

Here is an analysis. We'll see how it turns out :-P. A lot of assumptions will be made...

BB is almost out of the game.

Button can be holding Kx, 6x, dd or some other stuff like Ax or low PP.

When he has Kx I think he will 3-bet most of the time. Then I fold and it costs me the same as calling down would. When he calls and bets the river I will lose 1 BB more. Let's say he'll do that 30% of the time. The I lose 0.3 BB when he has Kx.

With 6x he will probably "always" call + bet the river. That is a worst case scenario that costs 1 BB.

When he has dd he would check through most of the time I think hade I called, as he will after I ch/r. Let's say I win 0.8 BB more from dd.

From Ax and PP I will win almost 1 BB more.

Random card distribution will give button
6x: 2/46 = 35% of the time
Kx: 2/46 = 35% of the time (would sometimes 3-bet flop)
dd: 9/46*8/45 = 30% of the time (would "often" take free card)

Now, these are to many assumptions. I think his most likly hands are
1) Kx = -0.3 BB
2) 6x = -1 BB
3) dd = +1 BB
4) PP/Ax = +1 BB

I think the raise was EV- just like all of you said. But I don't think it was so with much at all. Not as much as I thought at first. Maybe -0.1 BB? Maybe even break-even.

The reason I made the mistake was that I overestimated the times he would have dd here. I hadn't done calculations on that before. Also in the heat of combat I assumed he would always bet it on the turn.

EDIT: The point was to charge worse hands. I don't think that was enough though. If he were more aggressive like dave said, then probably yes.

EDIT2: Maybe it was even EV+. lol, I don't know. I'm just happy it wasn't a big mistake to the best of my knowledge

mscags · #6 09-12-2005, 04:15 PM

i don't think there is with two players to act. Someone is calling you down w Ace high a good portion of the time.

aflaba · #7 09-12-2005, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think there is with two players to act. Someone is calling you down w Ace high a good portion of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm good against A-high. Or did I misunderstand you?

GetThere1Time · #8 09-12-2005, 04:34 PM

When the passive guy calls two cold on this flop and then bets the turn I'm instamucking.

Subfallen · #9 09-12-2005, 04:49 PM

Well, if you want to do this, fine, but call it what it is---a bluff to fold a six. (Feel free to correct me, but I think Button's range looks like 40% 6x, 40% Kx, 20% other.)

#10 09-12-2005, 04:56 PM

Is it too weak to say fold to his flop raise cuz I think thats my line. There are no apparent draws out there. You've showed strength by raising pf from the SB. Once you get raised, BB has K or 6 here vast majority of time I would think and both of those hands have you drawing to two outs. Pots laying you 9:1 and you need approximately 25:1 odds to make an instant call, factor in implied odds I still don't your getting right odds to call.