KJ - chasing the one-card flush

[mannika]

Didn't like this one much.

CO is loose-passive, now have him at 48/4/0.5 (don't know what I had him at at the time)
Button is also quite bad, have him at 84/10/0.5 (not over many hands, but sample size isn't much of an issue when your VPIP is 80+)


Party Poker (6 max, 5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG folds, CO raises, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Button calls.

Turn: (8.5 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (11.5 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO bets, Button calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 13.5 BB

[sinfulslick18]

do not like the 3-bet on the flop. Your not a spade away from the nut flush. so he could be capping for that. Plus you do not have top pair. The turn brought more outs tho for a river ten if anything. so i would call down after calling the raise from the flop.

-sinful

[JoshuaD]

I don't like the flop 3-bet. The rest looks good.

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop 3-bet. The rest looks good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm... So you don't think that I have 33% pot equity here? The 3-bet was intended for value, thinking I had a decent shot at having the best draw, along with having 5 fairly good outs on the pair.

Is it just a matter of being up against either a made flush or an A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] too often?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop 3-bet. The rest looks good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm... So you don't think that I have 33% pot equity here? The 3-bet was intended for value, thinking I had a decent shot at having the best draw, along with having 5 fairly good outs on the pair.

Is it just a matter of being up against either a made flush or an A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] too often?

[/ QUOTE ]

CO is passive, so he's probably got at least a Q here, but possibly the lone A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Button's calling with something. It could be junk, it could be a Q, it could be the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or it could be another spade.

The thing is, against their ranges of hands, you need the cards to be setup perfectly for either your K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to be good OR for your J to be good. Pretty often here, they've collectively got the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the Q. (or some other made hand that has you beat).

The times your K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is the highest spade out there, which is a considerable portion of the time, your opponents are also more likely to be holding spades, making your outs to the flush more like 7.

These flop 3-bets are usually pretty thin 3-way. Like I said in this post, pumping flush draws is overrated. There are good times to do it, but generally you need a better reason than "I have a flush draw" to do it 3-way.

[mannika]

Right on, thanks very much for the more detailed analysis.

I guess in retrospect, I'm going to be needing about 10 outs or so to make pumping the flop to be worthwhile. My K and J outs are probably worth 3ish, and I'm probably not going to get the 7 outs as a result of other spades or the ace. In the heat of the 4-table I guess the math was a bit fuzzy, but calling the flop makes sense in hindsight.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Right on, thanks very much for the more detailed analysis.

I guess in retrospect, I'm going to be needing about 10 outs or so to make pumping the flop to be worthwhile. My K and J outs are probably worth 3ish, and I'm probably not going to get the 7 outs as a result of other spades or the ace. In the heat of the 4-table I guess the math was a bit fuzzy, but calling the flop makes sense in hindsight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, it's not even a big mistake, just one I caught myself making alot. Just ask yourself why you're pumping the flush draw on the flop. If you're not picking up value from the flush alone (3+ baddies), or have live overcards, or can pick up fold equity, you probably shouldn't be doing it.