3rd street question

[MarkGritter]

Stud 8 Hi/Lo (played with blinds at a DC table.)

There are three Ks out, I have (AQ)Q with a live two-card flush draw in the button. The K raises into me; should I believe he's got the fourth K? What's my plan for the hand? (No other players in the hand, the blinds show a 3 and a 9, A's and Q's are live.)

Probably the correct thing here is to believe him and fold.

What if I act before the Ks?

[bigredlemon]

What are the player's positions?
What kind of players are they?
Are the betting positions fixed?

[mscags]

The chances of him having the King are actually greater with two other kings out as opposed to none. I don't remember the math behind it but I read it somewhere. If you can get it heads up with him you can be in an alright shape to take one or two off, but if a low is going to be entering the pot than I would back off and fold. Also how was the KC Tourney? I really wanted to play but had to do some other things. Any chance of making this a weekly or monthly thing?

[Bartholow]

I think what you are referring to is this: with two kings up, the chance that SOMEONE has a pair of kings goes up. The chance of any individual person having kings goes down. And I think that with 3 kings up the chance of even "someone" having kings goes back down. (Feel free to correct me anyone.)

In terms of this specific hand I would probably reraise, but I'm an optimist [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. If you can get it headsup, the hand should mostly play like a stud high hand, and your pair with overcard should be in decent shape vs. a dead overpair if that's in fact what he has. You didn't say anything about the player, but generally there's a good chance he has something else in this situation (for one thing, if he's decent he might just fold dead kings, but be more willing to raise with a 3-flush, at least in my experience in stud high). So overall your equity should be good if you can get it headsup. It's particularly important to reraise here as the "ante" money is all live in a blind structure.

And if you have some sort of read that the 3 will likely come along, I agree you should strongly consider just folding.

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
I think what you are referring to is this: with two kings up, the chance that SOMEONE has a pair of kings goes up. The chance of any individual person having kings goes down. And I think that with 3 kings up the chance of even "someone" having kings goes back down. (Feel free to correct me anyone.)

[/ QUOTE ]

My calculations of the odds:

With one King up, the chance that that player also has another King is approximately 14.46%.

With two Kings up, the chance that one of those players also has another King is approximately 19.77%.

With three Kings up, the chance that one of those players has the case King is approximately 15.22%.

I think I'm right, but I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm not.

[Bartholow]

Thanks whipsaw, looks right to me.

Of course I'm not sure any of this is too relevant, it would be a lot more useful to know something about the players stealing frequency, then we could try to estimate his likelihood of a steal vs having a pair of kings.

[7stud]

whipsaw,

I'm getting slightly different numbers, but the pattern is the same:

1 king up: 13.3%
2 kings up: 17.5%
3 kings up: 13.6%

My methodology:

1)What are the chances that a King up will get another King when two cards are dealt to him from a deck of 44 cards(52 - 8 seen cards):

The chances of getting a King are 1 minus the chances of not getting a King. When the King is dealt two cards in succession from the 44 cards left, what are the chances the King does not catch a King on the first card AND the second card dealt? There are 41 cards out of 44 cards that aren't Kings to start. The chance of the player not getting a King when he is dealt two cards is:

41/44 x 40/43 = .867

So, the chances of getting a King are:

1 - .867 = .133 ==> 13.3%

2) When two players each have a King, what are the chances of at least one of the players getting one or more Kings?

The same as 1 minus the chances of player1 AND player2 not getting a King dealt to them. There are 42 out of 44 cards that aren't Kings to start, and if you deal player1 two cards, and then deal player2 two cards, the chances of both not getting a King is:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
player1 player2
(42/44 x 41/43) x (40/42 x 39/41) = .825</pre><hr />
So, the chances they get a King are:

1 - .825 = .175 ==&gt; 17.5%

3) More of the same with 3 Kings up. There are 43 cards out of 44 that aren't Kings to start. If each player is dealt two cards in succession, then the chances none of them gets a King are:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
player1 player2 player3
(43/44 x 42/43) x (41/42 x 40/41) x (39/40 x 38/39) = .864
</pre><hr />
1 - .864 = .136 ==&gt; 13.6%

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
whipsaw,

I'm getting slightly different numbers, but the pattern is the same:

1 king up: 13.3%
2 kings up: 17.5%
3 kings up: 13.6%

My methodology:

1)What are the chances that a King up will get another King when two cards are dealt to him from a deck of 44 cards(52 - 8 seen cards):

The chances of getting a King are 1 minus the chances of not getting a King. When the King is dealt two cards in succession from the 44 cards left, what are the chances the King does not catch a King on the first card AND the second card dealt? There are 41 cards out of 44 cards that aren't Kings to start. The chance of the player not getting a King when he is dealt two cards is:

41/44 x 40/43 = .867

So, the chances of getting a King are:

1 - .867 = .133 ==&gt; 13.3%

2) When two players each have a King, what are the chances of at least one of the players getting one or more Kings?

The same as 1 minus the chances of player1 AND player2 not getting a King dealt to them. There are 42 out of 44 cards that aren't Kings to start, and if you deal player1 two cards, and then deal player2 two cards, the chances of both not getting a King is:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
player1 player2
(42/44 x 41/43) x (40/42 x 39/41) = .825</pre><hr />
So, the chances they get a King are:

1 - .825 = .175 ==&gt; 17.5%

3) More of the same with 3 Kings up. There are 43 cards out of 44 that aren't Kings to start. If each player is dealt two cards in succession, then the chances none of them gets a King are:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
player1 player2 player3
(43/44 x 42/43) x (41/42 x 40/41) x (39/40 x 38/39) = .864
</pre><hr />
1 - .864 = .136 ==&gt; 13.6%

[/ QUOTE ]

Two methodological errors. There are 42 cards left, as you have seen your two hole cards plus the 8 upcards. Also, you don't multiply the chances of Kings not hitting. You add the chances of hitting the King.

[7stud]

[ QUOTE ]
There are 42 cards left, as you have seen your two hole cards plus the 8 upcards.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're right. Thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, you don't multiply the chances of Kings not hitting. You add the chances of hitting the King.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this one. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] If you figure out the probability of player1 AND player2 not getting a King, then subtract from 1, don't you get the probability of all other combinations involving Kings, i.e. the probability that player1 OR player2 has at least one other King?

Adding the probabilities of getting a King is much more complex because you have to add the probabilities of all the combinations--but the result will be the same.

Allowing for the seen cards in your hand, now I get:

1 King up: 13.9%
2 Kings up: 18.3%
3 Kings up: 14.3%

[Andy B]

What kind of cockamamie game is this using blinds?

I think this is a fold. You can play from behind in high-only stud because you're playing for the whole pot. If the Trey has a three-card low, he's coming along for the ride. Presumably the raiser can see that there are two Kings out as well. If he doesn't have Kings, his most likely hand is probably pocket Aces. If you think this guy is more adventurous, perhaps because there are mostly high cards out, and he might be raising with pocket Eights or some such, you can maybe re-raise, but you're putting a lot of money in in a marginal situation. There are easier spots to make money in this game.

If the Kings are yet to act, I raise every time.